Sustained growth in the mainland-economy

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Gross domestic product (GDP) for mainland-Norway grew by 0.3 percent in the 1. quarter of 2019, after an increase of 1.1 percent in the preceding quarter (seasonally adjusted). This development can partly be attributed to an unusually strong increase in agricultural output in the last quarter of 2018 following the drought of last summer, while low power production in February and March slowed down growth in the current quarter.

Written by: Tor Kristian Ånestad

Figure 1. Gross domestic product and household final consumption expenditures. Rolling three-month sum. Seasonally adjusted. Volume indices. 2016=100

Gross domestic product, Mainland-Norway Household final consumption expenditures
Jan. 2016
Feb. 2016
Mar. 2016 100 99.9
Apr. 2016 100 99.5
Mai 2016 99.8 99.4
Jun. 2016 99.7 99.3
Jul. 2016 99.5 99.5
Aug. 2016 99.5 99.6
Sept. 2016 99.8 99.8
Oct. 2016 100.1 100.3
Nov. 2016 100.3 100.6
Dec. 2016 100.5 101
Jan. 2017 100.7 101.2
Feb. 2017 101.1 101.5
Mar. 2017 101.3 101.7
Apr. 2017 101.5 101.6
Mai 2017 101.7 101.7
Jun. 2017 102.1 102
Jul. 2017 102.2 102.4
Aug. 2017 102.4 102.6
Sept. 2017 102.7 102.9
Oct. 2017 103 102.9
Nov. 2017 103.3 103.3
Dec. 2017 103.5 103.6
Jan. 2018 103.7 103.6
Feb. 2018 103.8 103.5
Mar. 2018 104.1 103.5
Apr. 2018 104.3 104.1
Mai 2018 104.7 104.6
Jun. 2018 104.8 104.8
Jul. 2018 105.1 104.7
Aug.2018 105.1 104.9
Sept.2018 105.1 104.7
Oct. 2018 105.3 105
Nov. 2018 105.7 105
Dec. 2018 106.2 105.2
Jan. 2019 106.4 105.2
Feb. 2019 106.5 105.3
Mar. 2019 106.6 105.8

Figure 2. Gross domestic product and household final consumption expenditures. Monthly. Seasonally adjusted. Volume indices. 2016=100

Gross domestic product, Mainland-Norway Household final consumption expenditures
Jan. 2016 100.3 100.4
Feb. 2016 100 99.8
Mar. 2016 99.8 99.4
Apr. 2016 100 99.1
Mai 2016 99.6 99.6
Jun. 2016 99.5 99.3
Jul. 2016 99.4 99.5
Aug. 2016 99.7 99.9
Sept. 2016 100.3 99.9
Oct. 2016 100.4 101
Nov. 2016 100.2 101
Dec. 2016 100.8 101
Jan. 2017 101 101.6
Feb. 2017 101.4 102.1
Mar. 2017 101.5 101.3
Apr. 2017 101.7 101.5
Mai 2017 102 102.2
Jun. 2017 102.6 102.3
Jul. 2017 102 102.8
Aug. 2017 102.7 102.8
Sept. 2017 103.3 103.2
Oct. 2017 103.1 102.8
Nov. 2017 103.7 103.8
Dec. 2017 103.7 104.3
Jan. 2018 103.5 102.7
Feb. 2018 104.1 103.6
Mar. 2018 104.5 104.4
Apr. 2018 104.4 104.5
Mai 2018 105.1 104.9
Jun. 2018 105 105.1
Jul. 2018 105.4 104.2
Aug.2018 104.9 105.3
Sept.2018 104.9 104.8
Oct. 2018 106.2 105.1
Nov. 2018 106.2 105.3
Dec. 2018 106.3 105.1
Jan. 2019 106.6 105.3
Feb. 2019 106.4 105.5
Mar. 2019 106.7 106.5

In total, power generation reduced mainland growth by 0.2 percentage points in the first quarter, while fishery, which was poor in February and March reduced growth by 0.1 percentage points. Growth in manufacturing nearly ended following three quarters of consecutive growth, while construction, which long has been an engine for growth, continued to contribute. A broad-based growth led to a 0.9 percent growth in services in the first quarter, close to its growth in the previous quarter.

Gross product in the petroleum sectors and in international shipping fell by 2.9 percent in the first quarter and consequently contributed to an unchanged total GDP (mainland and petroleum combined) compared to the last quarter of 2018.

Growth in consumption, decline in mainland investments

Household consumption increased by 0.6 percent in the first quarter, with an increase in car sales and growth in consumption of services of 0.7 percent being the main contributors.

General government consumption increased by 1.0 percent in the first quarter, following weak growth throughout 2018.

Gross fixed capital formation fell by 1.2 percent in the first quarter after a growth of 2.3 percent in the preceding quarter. The decline was mitigated by an increase of 2.1 percent in investments in the petroleum sectors and an increase in investment in the manufacturing sector of 9.8 percent. The latter has seen growth for the last four quarters. Investments in the mainland industries nevertheless fell by 2.6 percent while general government investments fell by 4.2 percent.

The decline in household investments in housing ended in the third quarter of 2018 and increased by 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2019.

Increased trade

Exports increased by 2.2 percent in the first quarter. Exports of services had a particularly large impact, while growth in exports of traditional goods (non-petroleum) was more tempered. The export volume of oil and gas fell by 2.6 percent.

Imports increased by 2.4 percent in the first quarter, with growth in both services and traditional goods.

Continued steady growth in employment

Projections show that employment, seasonally adjusted, increased by 13 700 persons, or 0.5 percent, in the first quarter. The figures show an increase in most industries: in construction the increase was over 3,000, while it was nearly 2,000 in manufacturing, and nearly 4,000 in general government. The number of hours worked increased by 0.5 percent.

Revisions for 1.-4. quarters of 2018

All quarters of 2018 have been revised in connection with the release of 1. quarter figures. The annual growth for GDP in mainland-Norway in 2018 remains 2.2 percent. Growth throughout the year has however been somewhat changed, with 4. quarter growth increased by 0.2 percentage points (from 0.9 to 1.1 percent). This is mainly due to updated figures on agricultural production. Household consumption remains unchanged, while government consumption is lowered somewhat. New data has led to a downward adjustment for investments in the petroleum sector for 2018, from 3.3 percent growth (February publication) to 2.7 percent.

An overview of revisions in macroeconomic key figures from the quarterly publication in February is provided in table 10.

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