Decreasing growth in the mainland-economy

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Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) for mainland Norway was 0.3 per cent higher in August to October compared with May to July, seasonally adjusted figures show. Monthly growth from September to October was 0.1 per cent.

The monthly figures are volatile, and it is therefore appropriate to assess the development over three-month periods. For each of the three months of August, September and October, growth has been weak, but growth in July was unusually strong. This provides an overhang, which pulls up the three-month growth, according to figures from the  National accounts.

Figure 1. Gross domestic product and household final consumption expenditures. Rolling three-month sum. Seasonally adjusted. Volume indices. 2017=100

Gross domestic product, Mainland-Norway Household final consumption expenditures
Jan. 2016
Feb. 2016
Mar. 2016 98.1 97.6
Apr. 2016 97.9 97.2
Mai 2016 97.8 97.1
Jun. 2016 97.6 97.1
Jul. 2016 97.5 97.3
Aug. 2016 97.5 97.3
Sep. 2016 97.7 97.5
Oct. 2016 98 98
Nov. 2016 98.1 98.3
Dec. 2016 98.3 98.5
Jan. 2017 98.5 98.8
Feb. 2017 99 99.2
Mar. 2017 99.2 99.3
Apr. 2017 99.3 99.2
Mai 2017 99.5 99.4
Jun. 2017 99.9 99.8
Jul. 2017 100.2 100.2
Aug. 2017 100.4 100.4
Sep. 2017 100.6 100.7
Oct. 2017 100.9 100.7
Nov. 2017 101.2 101.1
Dec. 2017 101.3 101.3
Jan. 2018 101.5 101
Feb. 2018 101.7 100.8
Mar. 2018 101.9 100.9
Apr. 2018 102.1 101.6
Mai 2018 102.3 102.2
Jun. 2018 102.4 102.5
Jul. 2018 102.7 102.4
Aug.2018 102.8 102.5
Sep.2018 102.7 102.5
Oct. 2018 103.1 102.7
Nov. 2018 103.4 102.7
Dec. 2018 103.9 102.6
Jan. 2019 104.1 102.7
Feb. 2019 104.2 102.7
Mar. 2019 104.4 103.2
Apr.2019 104.5 103.3
Mai 2019 104.8 103.4
Jun. 2019 105.1 103.5
Jul. 2019 105.4 103.7
Aug.2019 105.6 104
Sep.2019 105.8 103.9

Figure 2. Gross domestic product and household final consumption expenditures. Monthly. Seasonally adjusted. Volume indices. 2017=100

Gross domestic product, Mainland-Norway Household final consumption expenditures
Jan. 2016 98.2 97.8
Feb. 2016 97.7 97.3
Mar. 2016 97.6 96.9
Apr. 2016 97.7 96.6
Mai 2016 97.4 97.2
Jun. 2016 97 96.9
Jul. 2016 97.5 97
Aug. 2016 97.3 97.4
Sep. 2016 97.7 97.4
Oct. 2016 98.2 98.4
Nov. 2016 97.8 98.3
Dec. 2016 98.3 98.2
Jan. 2017 98.7 99.3
Feb. 2017 99.1 99.3
Mar. 2017 99 98.5
Apr. 2017 99.1 99
Mai 2017 99.8 99.9
Jun. 2017 100.1 99.7
Jul. 2017 99.9 100.3
Aug. 2017 100.4 100.3
Sep. 2017 100.8 100.7
Oct. 2017 100.6 100.4
Nov. 2017 101.3 101.3
Dec. 2017 101.2 101.2
Jan. 2018 101.3 99.7
Feb. 2018 101.7 100.6
Mar. 2018 102 101.6
Apr. 2018 101.9 101.8
Mai 2018 102.2 102.4
Jun. 2018 102.5 102.5
Jul. 2018 102.6 101.6
Aug.2018 102.4 102.7
Sep.2018 102.4 102.2
Oct. 2018 103.6 102.4
Nov. 2018 103.6 102.6
Dec. 2018 103.7 102.2
Jan. 2019 104.1 102.6
Feb. 2019 103.9 102.5
Mar. 2019 104.2 103.6
Apr.2019 104.7 102.9
Mai 2019 104.8 103
Jun. 2019 104.9 103.8
Jul. 2019 105.7 103.5
Aug.2019 105.4 103.8
Sep.2019 105.4 103.7

Three-month growth in the mainland economy was boosted by services related to oil extraction and construction of oil platforms and modules. Equally important was the rise in aquaculture and fish processing. Gross product in ICT services increased by the same magnitude, and several other service industries also contributed to the growth. Overall, the service industries increased by 0.3 per cent in the period August-October. The manufacturing industry also saw a rise in activity, but the growth rate was somewhat more subdued than earlier in 2019.

Consumption

Household consumption increased 0.2 per cent in the period August-October compared with May-July. Consumption of services grew 0.5 per cent during the same period, while retail consumption fell 0.4 per cent. For the three-month period, car purchases in particular contributed to this decline.

Foreigners’ purchases in Norway increased 0.6 per cent in the three-month period, whereas Norwegian households’ purchases abroad grew 1.8 per cent. Public consumption grew 0.3 per cent in the same period.

Investments

Gross investments grew 3.5 per cent from May-July to August-October and 1.3 per cent from September to October. Investment in dwellings fell 0.3 per cent over the three-month period and 0.8 per cent from September to October.

Good monthly information for other investments is lacking. This means that information on planned investments, as reported by firms in the industry, is used for petroleum, manufacturing, mining and power supply investments.

Imports and exports

Total exports decreased 1.8 per cent from May-July to August-October, while exports of traditional goods increased 1.5 per cent. Exports of crude oil and natural gas fell 6.2 per cent in the three-month period, which is linked to weak figures for August. Imports of traditional goods fell 1.3 per cent over the same period, while total imports decreased 0.1 per cent.

Revisions

With new monthly figures come revisions. The statistics used will not normally be subject to a revision, but seasonally adjusted series may, however, be changed. This is a consequence of new information being incorporated into the seasonal adjustment. As additional months are included in the data, the effect of new observations will become ever smaller. Growth in mainland GDP Q3 2019 as published in November, has not been revised.