Decreasing growth in the mainland-economy

The monthly figures are volatile, and it is therefore appropriate to assess the development over three-month periods. For each of the three months of August, September and October, growth has been weak, but growth in July was unusually strong. This provides an overhang, which pulls up the three-month growth, according to figures from the  National accounts.

Three-month growth in the mainland economy was boosted by services related to oil extraction and construction of oil platforms and modules. Equally important was the rise in aquaculture and fish processing. Gross product in ICT services increased by the same magnitude, and several other service industries also contributed to the growth. Overall, the service industries increased by 0.3 per cent in the period August-October. The manufacturing industry also saw a rise in activity, but the growth rate was somewhat more subdued than earlier in 2019.

Consumption

Household consumption increased 0.2 per cent in the period August-October compared with May-July. Consumption of services grew 0.5 per cent during the same period, while retail consumption fell 0.4 per cent. For the three-month period, car purchases in particular contributed to this decline.

Foreigners’ purchases in Norway increased 0.6 per cent in the three-month period, whereas Norwegian households’ purchases abroad grew 1.8 per cent. Public consumption grew 0.3 per cent in the same period.

Investments

Gross investments grew 3.5 per cent from May-July to August-October and 1.3 per cent from September to October. Investment in dwellings fell 0.3 per cent over the three-month period and 0.8 per cent from September to October.

Good monthly information for other investments is lacking. This means that information on planned investments, as reported by firms in the industry, is used for petroleum, manufacturing, mining and power supply investments.

Imports and exports

Total exports decreased 1.8 per cent from May-July to August-October, while exports of traditional goods increased 1.5 per cent. Exports of crude oil and natural gas fell 6.2 per cent in the three-month period, which is linked to weak figures for August. Imports of traditional goods fell 1.3 per cent over the same period, while total imports decreased 0.1 per cent.

Revisions

With new monthly figures come revisions. The statistics used will not normally be subject to a revision, but seasonally adjusted series may, however, be changed. This is a consequence of new information being incorporated into the seasonal adjustment. As additional months are included in the data, the effect of new observations will become ever smaller. Growth in mainland GDP Q3 2019 as published in November, has not been revised.