Continued high growth of the number of immigrants
The number of immigrants in Norway is expected to rise considerably in the period 2010 to 2060, from 460 000 today to between 1 and 1.8 million in 2060. The number of Norwegian-born to immigrant parents will increase from 93 000 to between 300 000 and 500 000. The sum of these two groups is estimated to be between 1.3 and 2.3 million in 2060, or between 22 and 28 per cent of the total population.
Simultaneous to a new projection for the whole country, counties and municipalities being published, Statistics Norway is publishing a new projection of immigrants and Norwegian-born to immigrant parents. This is done for three groups: Persons with a background from (1) Western EEA countries, North America, Australia and New Zealand, (2) Eastern EEA countries, and (3) the rest of the world, i.e. non-EU Eastern Europe, Africa, Asia (with Turkey), Latin America and the rest of Oceania.
We have made alternative assumptions about the projection components, called low (L), medium (M) and high (H), concerning fertility, life expectancy and net immigration. The main projection is called MMM, where all components have been given medium values. The other projections presented here are HHH, where all components are taking high values, and LLL, where all components have low values.