This is an archived release.
High growth in the number of immigrants
The number of immigrants in Norway is expected to rise considerably in the period 2009 to 2060, from 420 000 today to between 0.8 and 2.0 million in 2060. The number of Norwegian-born to immigrant parents will increase from 86 000 to between 270 000 and 660 000. The sum of these two groups, previously called the “immigrant population”, is estimated to be around 1.7 million by 2060, or between 20 and 31 per cent.
Simultaneous to a new projection for the whole country, counties and municipalities being published, Statistics Norway is publishing a new projection of immigrants and Norwegian-born to immigrant parents. This is done for two groups, persons with a background from (1) EEA/EFTA, North America, Australia and New Zealand, and (2) the rest of Eastern Europe, Africa, Asia (with Turkey), Latin America and the rest of Oceania.
We have made alternative assumptions about the projection components, called low (L), medium (M) and high (H), concerning fertility, life expectancy and net immigration. The main projection is called MMM, where all components have been given medium values. The other projections presented here are HHH, where all components are taking high values, and LLL, where all components have low values.
More detailed data are available at http://statbank.ssb.no/statistikkbanken/?PLanguage=1 . The next set of projections is expected to be published in June 2010.