6087
/en/befolkning/statistikker/folkfram/arkiv
6087
Strong population growth expected
statistikk
2005-12-15T10:00:00.000Z
Population;Population
en
folkfram, Population projections, population, population projections, population size, inhabitants, population development, projection variants, births, deathsPopulation projections , Population count, Population
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Population projections2005-2060

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Strong population growth expected

The new population projections for Norway to 2060 show that the population size is expected to grow, unless both net immigration and fertility decline significantly. The population will age rapidly, especially after 2013, and the population distribution is becoming more centralised.

A new method for projecting mortality yields life expectancies that are similar to those projected for 2002-2050. This results in approximately the same number of persons over age 67 but a lower number of the oldest-old, i.e. above 90.

The table below gives an overview of the assumptions.

Overview of the assumptions for the projections. 2005-2060
 
 RegisteredAlternatives
             L            M            H            0
 
Total Fertility Rate     
20041.828    
2005 1.841.841.84 
2060 1.41.82.2 
Life Expectancy at birth: Men     
200477.50    
2050 82.384.786.5 
2060 83.486.087.8 
Life Expectancy at birth: Women     
200482.11    
2050 86.088.991.3 
2060 86.990.192.7 
Net immigration per year     
200413 211    
2005 16 70516 70516 7050
2010- 9 00016 00024 0000
Domestic mobility: Expected umber of migrations
over the life course 1
     
2000-20042.19    
20042.10    
2010- 1.742.102.450
 
1  Based on migration probabilities for 2000-2004 less about 7 prosent. In the low alternative the
probabilities for ages 18-29 år are reduced by 40 per cent and in the high alternative increased by
40 prosent.

Detailed figures can be found in the statistics bank of Statistics Norway.

 

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