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New population projections for 2002-2050
statistikk
2002-12-05T10:00:00.000Z
Population;Population
en
folkfram, National population projections, population, population projections, population size, inhabitants, population development, projection variants, births, deathsPopulation projections , Population count, Population
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National population projections, 2002-2050

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New population projections for 2002-2050

Statistics Norway's new population projection shows a more rapid increase in the future number of elderly than previously projected. The number of persons 67 years and older will double from 2002 until 2050.

More details about the results can be found in the Norwegian article ), and in Official statistics of Norway: Population Projections 2002-2050, National and Regional Figures

The main assumptions are given in the table below.

Assumptions for the projections 2002-2050
 
 RegisteredAlternatives
 LMH                     0
 
Total fertility rate (children per woman)     
20011.78    
2002 1.741.751.771.75
2005 1.701.801.901.80
2050 1.401.802.201.80
Life expectancy at birth (years): men     
200176.2    
2002 76.076.376.676.3
2050 81.684.286.784.2
Life expectancy at birth (years): women     
200181.5    
2002 81.481.681.981.6
2050 86.088.190.088.1
Difference between women's and men's life expectancy (years)     
20015.3    
2050 4.43.93.33.9
Domestic mobility: Expected number of migrations over the life course 1     
1990-19951.9    
1996-20012.2    
20012.3    
2002 2.32.32.30.0
2050 1.92.02.20.0
  Migration pattern
as in 1990-1995		Migration pattern
as in 1990-2001		Migration pattern
as in 1996-2001		No migration 
Net immigration per year     
20017 955    
2002 16 00018 00019 0000
2003 9 00015 00020 0000
2004-2050 6 00013 00020 0000
 
1  Internal migration is defined as change of projection region during one calendar year. The 94 projection regions are the same as the 89 economic regions, except for five cities (Kristiansand, Stavanger, Trondheim, Bergen and Tromsø) that are treated as separate projection regions. Oslo is one economic region.

The population is projected by single years of age and sex for each of the 434 municipalities of Norway until 2020 and for each of the 19 counties until 2030. The table below shows the number of municipalities that are expected to increase or decline in population size in the next eight years, according to different projection variants.

Number of municipalities with growth/decline in the population in 2002-2010
 
 RegisteredVariants
 1990-2002Low national growth LLMLMedium national growth MMMMHigh national growth HHMHLow mobility MMLMHigh mobility MMHMNo migration MM00
 
Decrease 217 233 180 137 161 198 171
No change 120272118322752
Increase 197 174 233 279 241 209 211
 
1  'No change' means a growth between -0.5 and +0.5 per cent per year.