This is an archived release.
New population projections for 2002-2050
Statistics Norway's new population projection shows a more rapid increase in the future number of elderly than previously projected. The number of persons 67 years and older will double from 2002 until 2050.
More details about the results can be found in the Norwegian article ), and in Official statistics of Norway: Population Projections 2002-2050, National and Regional Figures
The main assumptions are given in the table below.
|Assumptions for the projections 2002-2050|
|Total fertility rate (children per woman)|
|Life expectancy at birth (years): men|
|Life expectancy at birth (years): women|
|Difference between women's and men's life expectancy (years)|
|Domestic mobility: Expected number of migrations over the life course 1|
as in 1990-1995
as in 1990-2001
as in 1996-2001
|Net immigration per year|
|2002||16 000||18 000||19 000||0|
|2003||9 000||15 000||20 000||0|
|2004-2050||6 000||13 000||20 000||0|
|1||Internal migration is defined as change of projection region during one calendar year. The 94 projection regions are the same as the 89 economic regions, except for five cities (Kristiansand, Stavanger, Trondheim, Bergen and Tromsø) that are treated as separate projection regions. Oslo is one economic region.|
The population is projected by single years of age and sex for each of the 434 municipalities of Norway until 2020 and for each of the 19 counties until 2030. The table below shows the number of municipalities that are expected to increase or decline in population size in the next eight years, according to different projection variants.
|Number of municipalities with growth/decline in the population in 2002-2010|
|1990-2002||Low national growth LLML||Medium national growth MMMM||High national growth HHMH||Low mobility MMLM||High mobility MMHM||No migration MM00|
|No change 1||20||27||21||18||32||27||52|
|1||'No change' means a growth between -0.5 and +0.5 per cent per year.|