Labour force survey, seasonally-adjusted figures, November 2005

The number of employed people increased by 11 000 from August (the July-September period) to November (October-December), according to the LFS. This is, however, inside the LFS error margin. Still, employment appears to be following an upward trend that has been seen since the summer of 2003. During 2005, employment has increased by 20 000 people, which is outside the error margin.

The number of unemployed in November was 5 000 lower than in August. The change is approximately on level with the LFS error margin. That is, it is not possible to say for sure whether there has been a decline. Still, the development in these figures is consistent with a downward trend. Seasonally adjusted figures of registered unemployment at job centres show a decline of 4 000 people in the same period.

EU unemployment down

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Norway was 4.5 per cent in November, compared with 4.8 per cent in August. OECD and Eurostat figures for most countries are only available for October. Compared with July, the rate in the EU15 area fell from 7.8 to 7.6 per cent, and in the OECD area from 6.5 to 6.4 per cent. In the same period, the unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 5.0 per cent in the USA. From July to October, the unemployment rate fell from 8.2 to 8.1 per cent in Finland, from 9.3 to 9.1 per cent in Germany, and from 9.5 to 9.3 per cent in France.

Man-weeks worked up

During 2005, the man-weeks worked figure has increased by 38 000, which is clearly outside the LFS error margin. From August to November, man-weeks worked went up by 79 000. This must be seen in connection with a change in the vacation pattern: An unusual strong increase occurred in the number of people on vacation leave in the summer months 2005, compared with previous years. This led to an extraordinary low level of man-weeks worked in August.

Uncertain figures

Quality tests show that the seasonally adjusted LFS unemployment figures are uncertain. The seasonal-adjustment method has problems identifying a stable seasonal pattern for this series. The random component is relatively large compared with the seasonal component. The figures should therefore be treated with caution.

The purpose of adjusting for seasonal variations is to describe the development over the last year and provide figures of change between the last two three-month periods, corrected for normal seasonal variations. In order to reduce uncertainty, the published series are three-month moving averages of the seasonally adjusted figures. For instance, the figures for November represent the average of the estimates for October, November and December.

Tables:

• Table 1. Employment and unemployment for persons aged 16-74 years, seasonally adjusted, three-months moving average. Absolute figures in 1000 and unemployed persons in per cent of the labour force.