Labour force survey, seasonally-adjusted figures, April 2005

The number of unemployed for April (the March-May period) stayed unchanged from the previous month (February-April). Seasonally adjusted figures of registered unemployment at job centres plus government measures to promote employment showed a small decline in the same period (from the previous month).

Following a period of negative development from the spring of 2002 to the summer of 2003, employment has ever since shown a more or less continuous rise. From January to April 2005, the number of employees went down by 1 000, which is clearly inside the LFS error margin. Employment measured by the LFS, has been stable in 2005.

Higher unemployment in Germany

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Norway was 4.6 per cent in April 2005, compared with 4.4 per cent in January. The rate stayed approximately unchanged in the EU and OECD area, at 8.1 and 6.7 per cent respectively. Unemployment stayed unchanged in the USA too, at 5.2 per cent. In Denmark, the rate decreased from 5.0 to 4.9 per cent, and in Finland from 8.8 to 8.6 per cent. From January to April, unemployment in France increased from 9.7 to 9.8 per cent, and in Germany from 9.6 to 10.0 per cent, according to figures from the OECD and Eurostat .

Man-weeks worked showed a downward trend between June 1998 and May 2003. Since then, we have seen signs of an increasing trend in these figures. From January to April 2005, man-weeks worked went up by 4 000, which is clearly inside the LFS error margin. However, in connection with the Christmas holidays in 2004 there were not many extra days off, which lead to an extraordinary high level of man-weeks worked in January (the December-February period). Therefore, the increase is probably higher than it appears to be.

Uncertain figures

Quality tests show that the seasonally adjusted LFS unemployment figures are uncertain. The seasonal-adjustment method has problems identifying a stable seasonal pattern for this series. The random component is relatively large compared with the seasonal component. The figures should therefore be treated with caution.

The purpose of adjusting for seasonal variations is to describe the development over the last year and provide figures of change between the last two three-month periods, corrected for normal seasonal variations. In order to reduce uncertainty, the published series are three-month moving averages of the seasonally adjusted figures. For instance, the figures for April represent the average of the estimates for March, April and May.

Tables:

• Table 1. Employment and unemployment for persons aged 16-74 years, seasonally adjusted, three-months moving average. Absolute figures in 1000 and unemployed persons in per cent of the labour force.