Labour force survey, seasonally-adjusted figures, January 2004

Since June (the May-July period) last year the trend has shown a decline in unemployment. The last figure for January (December-February) shows that unemployment decreased by 4 000 from the previous month (November-January). This is approximately on level with the error margins, and so the decline confirms the downward trend. Seasonally adjusted figures of registered unemployment at job centres revealed a lesser decrease from December last year to January this year.

The summer of 2003 saw an increase in employment after a longer period of decline. In January this year the number of employees increased by 2 000 from the previous month, which is inside the error margin.

Unemployment down in the USA and OECD

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Norway was 4.4 per cent in January 2004, compared with 4.5 per cent in October 2003. EU unemployment remained flat at 8.0 per cent, while the unemployment rate in the OECD countries declined from 7.1 to 6.9 per cent. The USA saw unemployment fall by 0.4 percentage points to 5.6 per cent from October to January, while Sweden experienced unemployment growth from 5.9 to 6.0 per cent, Denmark from 5.9 to 6.1 per cent, and Finland from 8.9 to 9.0 per cent. In Germany and France unemployment remained more or less unchanged. This is according to figures from the OECD and Eurostat .

Man-weeks worked have shown a downward trend since the summer of 1998. From October to January man-weeks worked declined by 34 000, which is clearly outside the error margins. Some of the decline may be attributable to an extra large amount of employees taking time off work around New Year's Day.

Uncertain figures

Quality tests show that the seasonally adjusted LFS unemployment figures are uncertain. The seasonal-adjustment method has problems identifying a stable seasonal pattern for this series. The random component is relatively large compared with the seasonal component. The figures should therefore be treated with caution.

The purpose of adjusting for seasonal variations is to describe the development during the last year and to provide figures of change between the last two three-month periods, cleared for normal seasonal variations. In order to reduce uncertainty, the presented series are three-month moving averages of the seasonally adjusted figures. For instance, the figures for January are the average of the estimates for December, January and February.

Tables:

• Table 1. Employment and unemployment for persons aged 16-74 years, seasonally adjusted, three-months moving average. Absolute figures in 1000 and unemployed persons in per cent of the labour force.