Labour force survey, seasonally-adjusted figures, October 2002

Norwegian unemployment has shown a weak increase since the autumn of 1999, according to seasonally adjusted figures from the LFS. From the 3-months period June - August 2002 to September - November 2002 total unemployment increased by 6 000 persons. In per cent of the labour force the number of unemployed persons increased by the upper edge of 0.2 percentage points, which is around the error margins. Seasonally adjusted figures of registered unemployed persons at the Employment Offices the last year also indicate an increasing unemployment.

The employment has shown only a slight increase from 1999 and onwards, after a period of strong growth. Through 2002 the number of employed persons has been just about unchanged. From the 3-months period June - August 2002 to September - November the numbers of employed persons increased by 1 000, which clearly is within the error margins.

Man-weeks worked

Man-weeks worked have shown a decreasing trend since autumn of 1999. It looks like the latest figures support the trend, with a decrease in man-weeks worked of 10 000 from the 3-months period June - August 2002 to September - November. However, this decrease is within the error margins.

Unemployment in the EU and the OECD: 7.7 and 7.0 per cent

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Norway increased from 3.7 per cent in July this year to 3.9 per cent in October. In the same period the unemployment increased from 7.6 to 7.7 per cent as an average in the EU member countries. The unemployment rate in the OECD-countries as a whole was unchanged at 7.0 per cent. In October 2002 the unemployment rate amounted to 5.7 in USA, 0.2 percentage point lower than in July. In the same period the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0 per cent in Sweden, while in Denmark the unemployment rate increased from 4.5 to 4.7 per cent. The unemployment rate in Finland decreased from 9.2 to 9.1 per cent. This is according to figures from OECD .

Uncertainty

Quality tests show that the seasonally adjusted LFS unemployment figures are uncertain. The seasonal-adjustment method has problems identifying a stable seasonal pattern for this series. The random component is relatively large compared with the seasonal component. In addition there are only a few unemployed persons, which may result in the uncertainty being considerable. The figures should therefore be used with caution.

The purpose of adjusting for seasonal variations is to describe the development during the last year and to give figures for change between the last two 3-month periods, cleared for normal seasonal variations. In order to reduce uncertainty, the presented series are three months moving averages of the seasonally adjusted figures. For instance the figure from October is the average of the estimates from September, October and November.

Tables:

• Table 1. Persons aged 16-74 years by labour force status, seasonally adjusted, three-months moving average. 1000