Labour force survey, seasonally-adjusted figures, October 2000

Seasonally adjusted figures indicate a decline of 14 000 man-weeks worked from July to October 2000, after a top around May.

The employment increased by 6 000 persons from July to October 2000.

The unemployment (LFS) in per cent of the labour force where unchanged from July to October 2000.

The purpose of adjusting for seasonal variations is to give figures of changes for the last three months and to describe the development during the last year. Please use unadjusted figures from the LFS in order to get figures of level.

Method

The series are made by seasonally adjusting monthly figures from the LFS. The levels are then corrected to make the yearly averages of the seasonally adjusted figures equal to the corresponding unadjusted figures from the LFS.

In order to reduce uncertainty the presented series are three months moving averages of the seasonally adjusted figures. For instance the figure from September is the average of the estimates from August - October.

Previous to the seasonal adjustment, adjustments are made for changes in the survey sample plan, the way the questions are being asked and for the method of estimation. We also make adjustments for holidays that fall in random months every year.

Uncertainty

Quality tests from our seasonal adjustment program X12-ARIMA show that the unemployment figures are very uncertain. This may have some connection to the fact that some of the calendar-effects already are adjusted for. However the main problem is probably that the random component is larger than then seasonal component. In addition there are only a few unemployed persons, which may result in the uncertainty being considerable. The figures should therefor be used with caution.

Tables:

• Table 1. Persons aged 16-74 years by labour force status, seasonally adjusted, three-months moving average. 1000