Less greenhouse gases - more waste

Small decrease in emissions of greenhouse gases

If the emissions of the so-called greenhouse gases continue to increase, we risk extensive and damaging climate change in the course of the next 100 years. A complete reorganization of the world's energy consumption pattern seems to be necessary to solve the problem, since the emissions from energy use is by far the largest source of these types of gases. The countries of the world are trying to organize emission reductions within the framework of the Kyoto Protocol, that Norway ratified 30 May 2002. The Protocol will enter into force when it has been ratified by industrialised countries that accounted for at least 55 per cent of total emissions in 1990. Now that parties including the EU have ratified the Protocol, Japan and several Eastern European countries, only ratification by Russia is needed for it to enter into force. The US President has declared that the USA will not ratify the Protocol.

According to the Kyoto Protocol the Norwegian emissions - when the so-called Kyoto mechanisms are taken into account - may only increase by 1 per cent between 1990 and the period 2008-2012.

Norwegian greenhouse gas emissions rose by 5 per cent from 1990 - the baseline year of the Kyoto Protocol - to 2002. The emission reduction of 2.5 per cent last year was mainly the result of lower production and the closure of plants in the ferro-alloy and magnesium industry. There has been a substantial reduction in flaring of surplus gas offshore, but this has been counterbalanced by a rise in emissions from gas turbines on offshore installations. Total emissions of nitrous oxide (N ₂ O) and carbon dioxide (CO ₂ ) from road traffic are continuing to rise.

CO ₂ accounted for three quarters of Norways aggregate greenhouse gas emissions in 2002. The most important emission sources are road traffic, oil and gas extraction, combustion in manufacturing industries and process emissions in metal production.

International agreements have effects

The international agreements on reductions in emissions of long-range air pollutants causing acidification are now showing results. The deposition of acidifying substances in Norway has been substantially reduced during the last decade. The areas in Norway where natures critical load for acidification are exceeded have been reduced by more than 30 per cent since 1985. Emissions from other European countries account for about 90 per cent of acid deposition in Norway.

Acid rain - caused by emissions of sulphur and nitrogen containing compounds - is still one of the most serious environmental problems in Norway, even though reductions in emissions have reduced the extent of acidification. The southern parts of Norway are particularly affected by acid rain, but some of the eastern parts of the county of Finnmark are also affected.

The total combined Norwegian emissions of acidifying gases have not been significantly reduced, and the authorities target for 2010 has not yet been reached.

Manufacturing industry - reduced activity and emissions

No improvement in air pollution in towns?

Clean air is important for health and quality of life. At times, local air pollution gives significant health and welfare problems in the largest towns and urban settlements in Norway. In the largest towns a substantial proportion of the population is exposed to concentrations of air pollutants that increase the risk of premature death and health problems such as respiratory infections, lung disease and cancer. The socio-economic costs of health damage caused by air pollution have been estimated by Statistics Norway to be several billions NOK per year.

There has been a certain decrease in the emissions of nitrogen oxides and sulphur dioxide in the largest towns in the last 10 years. There has also been a moderate reduction of the emissions of particulate matter, but they are still at about the same level as 10 years ago. The most important sources of local air pollution today are road traffic and heating in private households (fuelwood use). Fuelwood use constitutes actually 65 per cent of total particulate matter emissions (PM _{1 0} ), whereas road dust and tyre wear only constitutes 3 per cent, and exhaust from cars 4 per cent. Fuelwood use is also an important emission source for heavy metals, PAH (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) and dioxins.

There is a close relationship between economic activity and many environmental problems. The Norwegian Economic and Environmental Accounts (NOREEA), developed by Statistics Norway, connects economic and environmental indicators. In 2001, manufacturing industries accounted for 11.7 per cent of Norways total value added. The value added in manufacturing industries peaked in 1998, and is now showing a weak downward trend. This in itself may have reduced some environmental problems associated with emissions of pollutants; less activity, less emissions. In 2001, manufacturing industries generated 7 per cent of Norways emission of acidifying substances, 26 per cent of its greenhouse gas emissions and 6 per cent of emissions of ozone precursors that have adverse effects on health, vegetation and materials.

The amounts of waste are still increasing

Waste gives rise to environmental problems because waste treatment and disposal generate emissions of pollutants. However, these emissions are small compared with national totals. Landfilling of waste generates emissions of methane, which is a greenhouse gas, and is the most important methane emission source in Norway. Landfills - particularly the older ones - also contain various kinds of POPs and heavy metals and other substances that can pollute air, water and soil if they are released into the environment. Incineration is a method of waste treatment that eliminates methane emissions and other problems associated with landfilling, but generates emissions of various pollutants to air and produces ash that must be treated as hazardous waste. New incineration technology has made it possible to reduce such emissions considerably.

The total annual waste amount has increased about 18 per cent from 1995 to 2002. A total of 8.7 million tonnes of waste (about 700 000 tonnes of hazardous waste included) - about 2 tonnes per capita - was generated in 2002. The amounts for material recovery and incineration with energy recovery have increased by close to 40 per cent in the same period, and constituted 47 per cent of the total amount of waste (hazardous waste not included) in 2002. The authorities target is a total recovery share (material recovery and incineration with energy recovery) of 75 per cent.

The amount of household waste per capita was 354 kg in 2002. This is 117 kg more than in 1992, and 19 kg more than in 2001. Household waste - 1.6 million tonnes in 2002 - constitutes just below one fifth of the total annual waste amount in Norway.

Of a total amount of 684 000 tonnes of hazardous waste, 638 000 tonnes was dealt with through the proper channels in 2001. About 7 per cent of the total amount - 46 000 tonnes - was in other words dealt with outside proper channels, and significant amounts of this may be inappropriately dumped.

Oil and gas resources - economically important but of limited duration

As of 1 January 2003 the remaining Norwegian reserves of oil and gas corresponded to about 1 per cent of the worlds total reserves (the reserves include only the recoverable part of total resources). In 2002, Norways crude oil and natural gas production corresponded to 4.4 and 2.6 per cent of the world production, respectively. The remaining Norwegian reserves of oil and gas will be exhausted (as expressed by the ratio between reserves and production; the R/P ratio) after 8.3 and 30.1 years, respectively. The significant decrease for gas (from 38 years in 2001) is due to a substantial increase in Norwegian natural gas production. The worlds R/P ratio for oil as of 1 January 2003 is estimated at 40.6, and for gas 60.7.

The reserve estimates are subject to constant, sometimes large, re-evaluations, and decisions to develop new fields are made almost each year. The total petroleum resources are considerably larger. These are defined as estimate of all more or less definitely proven deposits.

Hydropower - a renewable resource

Unlike petroleum resources, hydropower resources are renewable. Norway has Europes largest hydropower resources, and this energy source has been an important basis for the industrialization of the country. The rich supplies of hydropower have a great influence on the composition of energy consumption. Close to 100 per cent of the electricity use is based on hydropower, and in year 2002 electricity made up about half of total energy consumption in Norway; the highest proportion in the world.

The size of the hydropower potential is evaluated on a continuous basis, and is dependent on technological and economic conditions as well as changes in the climatic regime. Consequently, the size of the estimated hydropower potential may change from one year to another. In the last decades the consumption has increased more than the supply, and is now higher than the production in a year with normal precipitation.

About 36 per cent of the hydropower potential has not been developed, and rather more than half of this is permanently protected.

Dry autumn, low degree of filling of reservoirs, high prices

Electricity production in Norway in 2002 totalled 131 TWh, and 10 TWh was exported. Autumn of 2002 was very dry, and as a result of the high level of production, water levels in the reservoirs reached an all-time low in autumn-winter 2002-2003. Electricity prices rose to record levels, and there appeared to be an imminent threat of an electricity crisis. The degree of filling of the reservoirs corresponded to about 18 TWh less at the beginning of 2003 than at the beginning of 2002.

Fish resources - need for a cautious exploitation

In the Annual report on marine resources 2003 the Institute of Marine Research points out that it is still necessary to exercise caution in the exploitation of several of our important fish stocks. This is particularly the case for demersal fish stocks; the pelagic stocks are generally in a better state. The North Sea cod stock is at a particularly low level. This stock has been, and is still, very heavily exploited.

The stock of North Sea herring is growing, and the spawning stock is currently above the precautionary spawning stock level. The North Sea cod stock is - as mentioned above - in a poor condition, and the spawning stock is far outside safe biological limits. The spawning stock of Norwegian spring-spawning herring has decreased somewhat during the last years, but the stock is considered to be within safe biological limits. The spawning stock of North-east Arctic cod has increased considerably last year, and is now well above the precautionary spawning stock level. This level was adjusted downwards this year, and the lower critical spawning stock level was adjusted somewhat upwards.