Trade deficit

Published:

For the third time in the last five quarters, Norway had a negative balance of goods and services. This is the third time since the start of the 21st century that Norway experience a trade deficit.

Export and imports

Preliminary figures show that total export of goods and services in the second quarter of 2017 ended at NOK 277 billion, according to new figures from the statistics Balance of payments. This is a fall compared to the previous quarter, but an increase compared to the same period in 2016.

Preliminary figures show that the import value of goods and services in the second quarter of 2017 ended at NOK 284 billion, representing an increase both compared to the last quarter and the same quarter last year. The preliminary figures of exports and imports in the second quarter are more reliable for goods than for services. For more information about export and import, including price and volume considerations and seasonal adjustments, please see the quarterly national accounts.

Income and current transfers

The balance of income and current transfers in the second quarter of 2017 ended at NOK 43 billion. Unlike the balance of goods and services, which has gradually weakened, the balance of income and current transfers has experienced a persistent growth over the last years. But still the current account is more influenced by the low balance of goods and services than the high balance of income and current transfers. The preliminary estimates give a current account balance in the second quarter of 2017 of NOK 36 billion. This is well below the average current account balance in the 21st century.

Reduced financial investments

The financial accounts show reduced investments on both the asset and liability side in the first quarter of 2017. In total there was a positive net lending of NOK 29 billion. There was a huge reduction in other investments abroad, where Norwegian banks had reduced deposits abroad by NOK 133 billion. On the liability side, both portfolio and other investments declined, including Norwegian deposit-taking corporations and the central bank which reduced their short term debt and deposits respectively both to and from abroad.

Revisions

Exports and imports

Both exports and imports have been revised for 2015 (final). Total export has been revised up NOK 10.6 billion, where the export of services has been revised up NOK 11.5 billion and the export of goods has been revised down NOK 0.9 billion. Total import has also been revised up, goods NOK 7.5 billion up and services NOK 3.2 billion down.

Preliminary figures for 2016 have also been revised due to new accounting information among other things. Both exports and imports have been revised up NOK 3.5 and NOK 16.0 billion respectively.

The revisions are larger for the first quarter of 2017 because most of the figures were projected at the last publication. Both exports and imports have been revised, giving a total downward revision of NOK 17.0 billion of the balance of goods and services.

Some figures for previous years (2009-2014) have also been revised.

Income and current transfers

New information regarding reinvested earnings has been incorporated for 2014.

In 2015 the balance of income and current account has been downward revised with approximately NOK 27 billion. Most of the revisions are due to new information regarding reinvested earnings.

There have also been downward revisions of the balance of income and current transfers in 2016, approximately NOK 22 billion. Also in 2016, it is mostly due to revisions of reinvested earnings. But a downward revision of the interest and dividends received from abroad, as well as an upward revision of interest and dividend paid to foreigners, has also contributed.

Also in the first quarter of 2017, the balance of income and current transfers is negative. The balance of income and current transfers has been revised down NOK 19 billion compared to the last publication.

Financial account

According to international standards (by Eurostat, ECB, IMF), deposit-taking corporations’ (except the central bank) lending to foreign deposit-taking corporations should be classified as deposits, and accordingly for deposit-taking corporations’ loan debt to all sectors abroad. Many countries have already introduced this classification, and it is now implemented in the Norwegian statistics. This is shown under Other investments in the tables, where there is a reclassification from loans to deposits. Due to this, figures have been updated going back to the first quarter of 2012.