Unchanged estimates for 2015
Total investments in oil and gas activity in 2014, including pipeline transportation, are now estimated at NOK 189 billion, which is the same level as estimated in the previous quarter. Final investments in 2014 came to NOK 214.3 billion – 2.0 per cent lower than estimated in the previous survey.
|Investment costs (mill. NOK)|
|Estimates made in May in the year before the investment year||143 180||194 285||208 223||182 420|
|Estimates made in August in the year before the investment year||171 958||204 045||215 095||185 256|
|Estimates made in November in the year before the investment year||184 591||207 815||223 259||188 570|
|Estimates made in February in the year of investments||186 044||198 678||223 724||189 049|
|Estimates made in May in the year of investments||186 654||211 303||231 700||.|
|Estimates made in August in the year of investments||184 942||212 768||227 267||.|
|Estimates made in Novenber in the year of investments||180 600||211 900||218 584||.|
|Accrued investment costs||173 482||211 883||214 310||.|
Final investments in 2014 were 1.1 per cent higher than in 2013. Investment growth came to a halt last year after a steep growth in the three previous years. The estimates for 2015 indicate a distinct decrease in the investments this year. The estimate for 2015 is 15.5 per cent lower than the corresponding estimate for 2014, given in the first quarter of 2014. Accrued investments for the fourth quarter of 2014 were 6.1 per cent lower than in the previous quarter. This shows that the decrease had already started in autumn 2014.
Despite the survey indicating a significant decrease in 2015, the estimated investments are at a historically very high level.
The plan for development and operation (PDO) on Johan Sverdrup was delivered to the authorities earlier this quarter. This project is therefore now included in the investment survey. The estimate for 2015 remains unchanged because the estimates, particularly within the investment categories fields on stream and exploration, have decreased compared with the estimates given in the previous quarter.
Lower estimates within exploration and fields on stream
The investments for exploration and fields on stream in 2015 are now estimated at NOK 25.9 and NOK 72.2 billion respectively. This is NOK 5.8 and 6.3 billion lower respectively than estimated in the previous survey.
There is reason to believe that the sharp fall in oil prices in recent months has resulted in downward revised licence and field budgets. The estimate for 2015 for exploration is NOK 8.4 billon lower than the corresponding estimate for 2014, given in the first quarter of 2014, while the estimate for fields on stream is NOK 26.2 billion lower than the corresponding estimate for 2014.
Final investments in 2014
Total investments in oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport for 2014 were NOK 214.3 billion. This is NOK 4.3 billion lower than the estimate conducted in the survey last quarter, but an increase of NOK 2.4 billion compared with the final investments in 2013. The increase in 2013 is due to higher investments in all investment areas except fields on stream.
The final investments for exploration activity in 2014 came to NOK 34.3 billion. Compared with the final investment figures in 2013, the 2014 investments were NOK 0.4 billion higher. In 2014, 56 exploration wells were spudded – 3 fewer than in 2013. Compared with the previous quarter, the final figure was NOK 0.8 billion lower.
Final investments in field development for 2014 came to NOK 72.7 billion. This is a NOK 9.5 billion increase compared with final figures for 2013.
Fields on stream in 2014 came to NOK 90.1 billion; a decrease of NOK 15 billion compared with the previous year.
Onshore activity and pipeline transportation in 2014 both came to NOK 4.5 billion respectively.
Final investments in Removal and Shutdown for 2014 came to NOK 8.1 billion. This is a NOK 5.3 billion increase compared with final figures for 2013.
The information in the survey was collected from the operators on the Norwegian Shelf in mid February.