Strong growth in manufacturing output in January

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Norwegian manufacturing output saw a strong output growth of 2.5 per cent from December 2020 to January 2021, according to seasonally adjusted figures. A high production level within food products contributed strongly to the overall output growth.

Written by: Anel Finci

The index level for Norwegian manufacturing in the period November 2020- January 2021 amounted to 118.8 (2005=100). The corresponding figure for the previous three-month period was 115.9. After a sharp decline from March to May 2020, manufacturing production has seen a steady growth, and the output level in January is higher than the levels seen prior to the Corona epidemic.

1 March 2020 and the subsequent months are specified as outliers in the seasonal adjustment routine Hence, the trend figures for 2020 are not included in the figure.

Figure 1. Production development in manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted and smoothed seasonally adjusted figures.¹ 2005=100

Smoothed seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted
Jan. 2016 115.4 115.1
Feb. 2016 115.1 115.4
Mar. 2016 114.8 117.9
Apr. 2016 114.5 114.3
May. 2016 114.1 114.9
June. 2016 113.6 112.6
July. 2016 113.1 113.8
Aug. 2016 112.6 109.9
Sep. 2016 112.3 112.2
Oct. 2016 112.3 112.0
Nov. 2016 112.6 112.2
Dec. 2016 113.0 112.7
Jan. 2017 113.5 114.3
Feb. 2017 113.9 114.1
Mar. 2017 114.2 114.0
Apr. 2017 114.3 114.2
May. 2017 114.3 114.2
June. 2017 114.2 114.2
July. 2017 114.2 114.6
Aug. 2017 114.3 110.5
Sep. 2017 114.4 114.0
Oct. 2017 114.5 114.2
Nov. 2017 114.6 114.6
Dec. 2017 114.7 115.9
Jan. 2018 114.7 113.9
Feb. 2018 114.7 114.6
Mar. 2018 114.8 115.0
Apr. 2018 114.9 115.2
May. 2018 115.1 114.5
June. 2018 115.4 115.5
July. 2018 115.8 115.9
Aug. 2018 116.3 116.6
Sep. 2018 116.8 116.0
Oct. 2018 117.3 117.6
Nov. 2018 117.7 117.9
Dec. 2018 118.1 118.4
Jan. 2019 118.4 118.2
Feb. 2019 118.7 118.3
Mar. 2019 119.0 117.0
Apr. 2019 119.3 119.8
May. 2019 119.4 120.1
June. 2019 119.5 118.9
July. 2019 119.5 120.1
Aug. 2019 119.4 118.8
Sep. 2019 119.4 119.6
Oct. 2019 119.3 119.5
Nov. 2019 119.3 119.1
Dec. 2019 119.3 119.2
Jan. 2020 119.2 119.5
Feb. 2020 119.3 119.1
Mar. 2020 115.5
Apr. 2020 113.5
May. 2020 110.4
June. 2020 110.5
July. 2020 112.7
Aug. 2020 116.1
Sep. 2020 115.5
Oct. 2020 116.2
Nov. 2020 117.9
Dec. 2020 117.7
Jan. 2021 120.7

Monthly change: food products contributed to solid overall output growth

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, manufacturing output had a solid increase of 2.5 per cent from December 2020 to January 2021. Food products contributed the most to the overall output growth with an increase of 4.3 per cent. The increase was particularly strong within processing and preserving of fish due to high slaughter volume of pelagic fish. In addition, there was a clear growth within the industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals as a result of high output of pharmaceutical products. Fabricated metal products as well as machinery and equipment contributed also positively in this period.

On the other hand, the industry grouping rubber, plastic and mineral products contributed to dampen the overall increase. There was particularly low production of concrete and cement due to cold weather in January.

Three-month change: high production within several sectors

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, manufacturing output saw a strong increase of 2.5 per cent in the period November 2020- January 2021 compared with the previous three-month period. The growth must be seen in context with the fact that manufacturing output has gradually recovered after the sharp fall in the beginning of the Corona epidemic. Hence, several industrial sectors have seen output growth in this period. Food products contributed the most to the overall output growth, but also the following industries contributed in a positive direction:

  • refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals
  • basic metals
  • building of ships, boats and oil platforms

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2

Figure 2. Indicator for petroleum-related industries. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

Petroleum-related manufacturing and support activities Petroleum-related manufacturing Manufacturing ex. petroleum-related industries
Jan. 2011 149.9 153.0 99.0
Feb. 2011 149.5 153.1 98.8
Mar. 2011 147.3 153.3 99.6
Apr. 2011 148.9 151.8 99.6
May. 2011 150.6 152.7 99.4
June. 2011 152.3 151.9 97.8
July. 2011 154.2 153.0 95.7
Aug. 2011 155.9 154.5 94.2
Sep. 2011 159.1 158.7 94.5
Oct. 2011 161.2 163.3 95.6
Nov. 2011 162.8 164.7 96.3
Dec. 2011 164.7 166.6 95.3
Jan. 2012 167.1 167.9 95.3
Feb. 2012 169.5 168.4 95.2
Mar. 2012 167.6 168.0 95.5
Apr. 2012 164.7 166.2 95.6
May. 2012 164.7 167.9 95.9
June. 2012 168.2 169.3 95.9
July. 2012 170.5 172.3 95.6
Aug. 2012 172.8 174.4 95.4
Sep. 2012 173.5 177.0 95.4
Oct. 2012 177.6 179.7 95.0
Nov. 2012 178.1 180.9 94.6
Dec. 2012 179.1 181.6 94.4
Jan. 2013 180.3 183.2 94.5
Feb. 2013 182.5 186.1 94.2
Mar. 2013 186.7 188.2 93.8
Apr. 2013 187.8 191.5 93.4
May. 2013 189.3 193.5 93.0
June. 2013 190.8 197.6 93.4
July. 2013 193.8 198.7 93.9
Aug. 2013 194.1 198.2 94.6
Sep. 2013 193.8 196.9 94.6
Oct. 2013 191.5 195.0 94.6
Nov. 2013 193.0 195.2 94.1
Dec. 2013 194.0 195.2 94.2
Jan. 2014 196.4 196.8 94.2
Feb. 2014 196.9 198.6 94.3
Mar. 2014 196.3 199.6 94.1
Apr. 2014 195.8 199.6 94.2
May. 2014 197.2 199.9 94.5
June. 2014 199.8 203.2 95.2
July. 2014 199.1 207.7 95.0
Aug. 2014 201.9 213.6 95.1
Sep. 2014 201.5 213.7 94.1
Oct. 2014 206.6 214.5 94.3
Nov. 2014 204.4 212.8 93.9
Dec. 2014 203.5 214.9 94.5
Jan. 2015 199.7 212.9 93.6
Feb. 2015 196.9 210.0 93.5
Mar. 2015 195.5 207.1 94.3
Apr. 2015 193.9 204.3 94.6
May. 2015 189.0 201.1 94.3
June. 2015 184.3 195.9 93.9
July. 2015 180.5 192.5 92.7
Aug. 2015 179.5 189.8 93.1
Sep. 2015 178.1 188.2 93.0
Oct. 2015 174.3 185.4 93.9
Nov. 2015 172.0 182.7 94.1
Dec. 2015 168.1 178.3 94.0
Jan. 2016 165.4 176.7 94.2
Feb. 2016 164.7 174.4 94.4
Mar. 2016 165.2 174.2 95.0
Apr. 2016 163.5 172.4 95.1
May. 2016 160.4 170.8 95.4
June. 2016 156.6 167.4 94.9
July. 2016 157.5 167.2 94.9
Aug. 2016 153.7 160.8 94.8
Sep. 2016 152.6 159.5 94.9
Oct. 2016 150.0 157.0 94.8
Nov. 2016 151.3 160.1 94.9
Dec. 2016 151.5 161.0 95.1
Jan. 2017 151.1 159.1 96.6
Feb. 2017 149.7 158.5 97.8
Mar. 2017 146.5 154.4 98.8
Apr. 2017 146.7 155.6 98.5
May. 2017 147.4 155.9 98.3
June. 2017 149.2 158.0 98.3
July. 2017 149.5 156.5 99.0
Aug. 2017 147.8 154.4 98.0
Sep. 2017 148.2 155.0 97.7
Oct. 2017 147.1 156.2 97.0
Nov. 2017 149.6 158.8 98.1
Dec. 2017 150.4 159.3 99.0
Jan. 2018 150.6 158.9 99.0
Feb. 2018 150.5 159.6 98.7
Mar. 2018 151.8 161.3 97.3
Apr. 2018 152.2 162.2 97.7
May. 2018 153.4 161.5 97.8
June. 2018 153.4 160.5 98.6
July. 2018 153.7 160.8 98.8
Aug. 2018 155.3 162.9 99.0
Sep. 2018 155.6 165.0 98.5
Oct. 2018 159.0 166.9 98.7
Nov. 2018 160.4 168.7 98.8
Dec. 2018 161.9 170.7 99.6
Jan. 2019 163.8 173.7 99.2
Feb. 2019 165.9 176.5 98.8
Mar. 2019 167.9 177.4 97.6
Apr. 2019 170.6 179.9 97.6
May. 2019 172.9 182.6 97.7
June. 2019 175.1 185.3 98.1
July. 2019 176.7 186.4 97.8
Aug. 2019 175.6 185.4 97.5
Sep. 2019 177.5 185.3 97.6
Oct. 2019 176.7 184.8 97.7
Nov. 2019 180.2 186.9 97.4
Dec. 2019 181.9 188.0 97.2
Jan. 2020 183.2 189.2 96.9
Feb. 2020 183.7 188.5 97.0
Mar. 2020 176.8 182.4 96.8
Apr. 2020 170.0 174.5 96.1
May. 2020 157.8 166.3 94.5
June. 2020 154.6 163.4 93.3
July. 2020 152.3 160.9 93.1
Aug. 2020 156.9 164.0 94.6
Sep. 2020 159.9 166.2 95.9
Oct. 2020 164.2 171.7 96.6
Nov. 2020 166.6 172.2 97.4
Dec. 2020 167.4 172.0 98.4
Jan. 2021 167.7 172.7 99.9

Monthly change: decrease in the Euro area in December 2020

Estimated figures from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, indicate that manufacturing output in the Euro area had a decrease of 1.7 per cent from November to December 2020. The decline comes after a period with steady growth in the previous months.

In the same period, Norwegian manufacturing production had a marginal fall of 0.2 per cent. Sweden saw a minor growth of 0.4 cent, while Denmark had an increase of 2.2 per cent.

For more information on the development in European manufacturing sector, see this article from Eurostat.

Figure 3. Index of production for manufacturing. Euro area and Norway (2015=100). Seasonally adjusted

Euro area Norway
Jan. 2015 97.4 102.6
Feb. 2015 99.8 102.7
Mar. 2015 100.6 106.3
Apr. 2015 99.8 101.6
May. 2015 100.1 99.8
June. 2015 100.3 100.7
July. 2015 100.7 96.5
Aug. 2015 100.3 99.0
Sep. 2015 100.2 99.5
Oct. 2015 100.2 97.0
Nov. 2015 100.0 97.9
Dec. 2015 100.5 96.6
Jan. 2016 103.3 96.4
Feb. 2016 101.2 96.7
Mar. 2016 100.4 98.8
Apr. 2016 101.7 95.8
May. 2016 100.3 96.3
June. 2016 101.3 94.3
July. 2016 101.4 95.4
Aug. 2016 101.7 92.1
Sep. 2016 101.6 94.0
Oct. 2016 102.6 93.9
Nov. 2016 102.8 94.0
Dec. 2016 102.4 94.4
Jan. 2017 101.8 95.8
Feb. 2017 103.1 95.6
Mar. 2017 103.3 95.6
Apr. 2017 104.1 95.7
May. 2017 104.3 95.7
June. 2017 103.6 95.7
July. 2017 105.6 96.0
Aug. 2017 106.2 92.6
Sep. 2017 105.9 95.6
Oct. 2017 105.5 95.7
Nov. 2017 108.2 96.1
Dec. 2017 108.4 97.1
Jan. 2018 107.1 95.4
Feb. 2018 105.3 96.0
Mar. 2018 105.3 96.3
Apr. 2018 105.9 96.5
May. 2018 107.1 96.0
June. 2018 107.0 96.8
July. 2018 105.7 97.1
Aug. 2018 106.9 97.7
Sep. 2018 106.3 97.2
Oct. 2018 106.2 98.6
Nov. 2018 105.1 98.8
Dec. 2018 104.6 99.2
Jan. 2019 105.7 99.1
Feb. 2019 106.1 99.1
Mar. 2019 106.0 98.1
Apr. 2019 105.0 100.4
May. 2019 105.8 100.7
June. 2019 104.5 99.7
July. 2019 104.6 100.6
Aug. 2019 104.6 99.6
Sep. 2019 104.8 100.2
Oct. 2019 104.0 100.1
Nov. 2019 103.6 99.8
Dec. 2019 101.2 99.9
Jan. 2020 103.9 100.2
Feb. 2020 104.1 99.8
Mar. 2020 91.5 96.8
Apr. 2020 73.4 95.1
May. 2020 83.3 92.5
June. 2020 92.0 92.6
July. 2020 97.3 94.4
Aug. 2020 97.6 97.2
Sep. 2020 97.6 96.7
Oct. 2020 99.8 97.4
Nov. 2020 103.2 98.8
Dec. 2020 101.4 98.6

Three-month change: increase in total production index

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, the total production index (PII) covering extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply had an output increase of 1.3 per cent in the period November 2020- January 2021 compared with the last three-month period. Extraction of crude petroleum was more or less unchanged, while extraction of natural gas saw a decrease of 2.7 per cent. For more details about oil and gas extraction in this period, see the press release from The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Within support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction, there was a solid output growth of 5.1 per cent in the period November 2020- January 2021compared with the previous three-month period. In the same period, mining and quarrying also saw an increase of 5.9 per cent, while production within Norwegian electricity supply was more or less unchanged.

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 4. Production development. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

Manufacturing Extraction, mining, manufacturing and elec. Extraction and related services
Jan. 2011 112.7 87.7 78.4
Feb. 2011 112.6 87.0 77.9
Mar. 2011 113.1 85.8 76.5
Apr. 2011 112.9 84.7 74.9
May. 2011 113.0 82.3 71.1
June. 2011 111.7 81.7 70.0
July. 2011 110.2 81.9 69.7
Aug. 2011 109.6 84.3 72.6
Sep. 2011 110.9 85.6 74.2
Oct. 2011 112.9 86.1 74.5
Nov. 2011 113.8 86.4 74.7
Dec. 2011 113.5 85.3 73.6
Jan. 2012 113.9 86.6 74.8
Feb. 2012 113.9 87.3 75.1
Mar. 2012 114.0 88.4 75.8
Apr. 2012 113.7 88.4 75.5
May. 2012 114.4 88.5 75.5
June. 2012 114.8 88.9 76.0
July. 2012 115.3 88.0 75.1
Aug. 2012 115.7 87.3 74.0
Sep. 2012 116.3 85.0 70.4
Oct. 2012 116.8 85.2 70.4
Nov. 2012 116.8 84.3 69.3
Dec. 2012 116.7 85.3 70.9
Jan. 2013 117.2 83.8 70.1
Feb. 2013 117.7 82.4 69.3
Mar. 2013 118.0 80.7 68.4
Apr. 2013 118.8 81.1 68.9
May. 2013 119.0 82.8 71.1
June. 2013 120.4 84.0 72.4
July. 2013 120.8 85.1 73.6
Aug. 2013 121.1 84.5 72.8
Sep. 2013 120.8 83.9 72.1
Oct. 2013 120.3 81.6 69.4
Nov. 2013 120.1 81.5 69.3
Dec. 2013 120.2 82.0 69.9
Jan. 2014 120.7 83.7 71.5
Feb. 2014 121.3 84.3 71.8
Mar. 2014 121.8 85.3 72.3
Apr. 2014 121.8 85.4 72.3
May. 2014 122.1 84.2 70.2
June. 2014 123.0 84.0 69.4
July. 2014 123.5 83.6 68.9
Aug. 2014 125.2 84.8 70.3
Sep. 2014 124.4 85.5 71.6
Oct. 2014 125.3 87.0 73.4
Nov. 2014 124.5 87.6 74.2
Dec. 2014 125.4 87.4 73.7
Jan. 2015 124.1 86.1 72.4
Feb. 2015 123.4 86.1 72.8
Mar. 2015 123.9 86.4 73.0
Apr. 2015 123.5 85.4 71.8
May. 2015 122.4 84.9 71.4
June. 2015 120.1 85.0 72.1
July. 2015 118.1 86.2 74.3
Aug. 2015 117.8 87.1 75.5
Sep. 2015 117.3 87.7 76.5
Oct. 2015 117.5 88.0 76.9
Nov. 2015 117.1 87.1 76.0
Dec. 2015 115.9 85.5 74.3
Jan. 2016 115.7 85.3 73.8
Feb. 2016 115.3 85.3 73.9
Mar. 2016 116.1 85.7 73.7
Apr. 2016 115.9 86.1 74.2
May. 2016 115.7 86.4 74.7
June. 2016 113.9 85.3 73.9
July. 2016 113.8 85.0 73.6
Aug. 2016 112.1 83.4 72.0
Sep. 2016 112.0 81.8 69.9
Oct. 2016 111.4 82.3 70.8
Nov. 2016 112.1 83.8 72.8
Dec. 2016 112.3 85.8 75.5
Jan. 2017 113.1 85.7 74.3
Feb. 2017 113.7 85.8 73.4
Mar. 2017 114.1 86.8 74.0
Apr. 2017 114.1 87.2 74.4
May. 2017 114.1 87.2 74.4
June. 2017 114.2 87.2 74.0
July. 2017 114.3 87.0 73.6
Aug. 2017 113.1 87.2 74.3
Sep. 2017 113.0 87.4 74.7
Oct. 2017 112.9 86.7 73.9
Nov. 2017 114.3 85.9 72.2
Dec. 2017 114.9 84.9 70.5
Jan. 2018 114.8 85.8 70.7
Feb. 2018 114.8 86.8 70.7
Mar. 2018 114.5 87.7 70.9
Apr. 2018 114.9 87.3 70.3
May. 2018 114.9 86.4 69.6
June. 2018 115.1 87.1 71.1
July. 2018 115.3 87.4 71.8
Aug. 2018 116.0 88.9 73.7
Sep. 2018 116.2 88.3 72.4
Oct. 2018 116.7 88.7 72.1
Nov. 2018 117.2 87.7 70.3
Dec. 2018 118.0 87.2 69.2
Jan. 2019 118.2 85.8 68.1
Feb. 2019 118.3 84.6 67.3
Mar. 2019 117.8 83.2 66.6
Apr. 2019 118.4 82.6 65.7
May. 2019 119.0 82.7 65.5
June. 2019 119.6 82.6 64.9
July. 2019 119.7 82.5 64.5
Aug. 2019 119.3 81.9 63.6
Sep. 2019 119.5 81.5 62.6
Oct. 2019 119.3 81.8 63.3
Nov. 2019 119.4 83.4 65.7
Dec. 2019 119.3 85.4 69.3
Jan. 2020 119.3 85.8 70.6
Feb. 2020 119.3 86.1 71.6
Mar. 2020 118.0 86.6 72.5
Apr. 2020 116.0 87.6 73.5
May. 2020 113.1 87.4 73.6
June. 2020 111.5 86.4 73.0
July. 2020 111.2 86.3 73.2
Aug. 2020 113.1 86.9 73.6
Sep. 2020 114.8 87.5 73.7
Oct. 2020 115.9 86.4 71.6
Nov. 2020 116.5 85.4 70.3
Dec. 2020 117.3 85.8 70.2
Jan. 2021 118.8 87.5 71.7

The seasonal adjustment routine has been adjusted during the Corona-crisis

Thursday 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. Several manufacturing establishment have been affected by these measures, and this has led to a change in the activity pattern compared to what we usually observe. Hence, the seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona- crisis is done in such a way that the figures during the crisis (from March), are not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine this is done by specifying March and following months as outliers.

This implies that normal trend figures will not be calculated, and instead the trend will follow the seasonal adjusted figures. One important exception is the last observation, where the trend will be an extrapolated figure where the last observation is not included. The trend figures from, and including, March 2020 will therefore be difficult to interpret.

The seasonal adjustment routine of Statics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.

Updated weights in the PII in 2021

The weights in the index of industrial production (PII) are updated by the transition to a new year. The basis for the weights in the index of industrial production (PII) is value added at factor prices from the annual structure statistics for oil and gas, manufacturing, electricity and district heating for 2019. The value added figures are updated to the situation at the end of 2020 with rates of change from the quarterly national accounts, and volume figures from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Within manufacturing, food products together with basic chemicals were the industries that had the largest increase in weights from 2020 to 2021. On the other hand, weights for basic metals, and building of ships, boats and oil platforms had the largest decline from 2020 to 2021. For the total aggregate (PII), the weights for electricity supply and manufacturing increased, while the weight for extraction and related services decreased.

Productivity factors

As of January 2021, updated productivity factors will be included in the calculation of the index of industrial production (PII) covering extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply. The factors are based on annual volume change in GDP per hour worked for the relevant industries and are an average from the last five years. This information is collected from the annual national accounts.

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