Small output decline in manufacturing

Published:

Norwegian manufacturing output declined 0.3 per cent from February to April 2018 compared to the previous three-month period, according to seasonally-adjusted figures. From March to April 2018, output went up 1.1 per cent.

The index level for Norwegian manufacturing from February to April 2018 amounted to 114.5 (2005=100). The corresponding figure for the previous three-month period was 114.9.

Figure 1. Production development in manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted and smoothed seasonally adjusted figures. 2005=100

Smoothed seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted
Jan. 2013 117.83 118.08
Feb. 2013 118.43 118.83
Mar. 2013 119.15 117.1
Apr. 2013 119.85 120.49
May. 2013 120.42 119.44
June. 2013 120.75 121.23
July. 2013 120.82 121.83
Aug. 2013 120.69 120.44
Sep. 2013 120.5 120.28
Oct. 2013 120.36 120.19
Nov. 2013 120.39 119.65
Dec. 2013 120.56 120.76
Jan. 2014 120.9 121.81
Feb. 2014 121.3 121.44
Mar. 2014 121.79 121.6
Apr. 2014 122.38 121.8
May. 2014 123.1 122.34
June. 2014 123.89 124.85
July. 2014 124.7 124.78
Aug. 2014 125.34 127.42
Sep. 2014 125.63 122.75
Oct. 2014 125.53 126.33
Nov. 2014 125.13 124.74
Dec. 2014 124.47 125.43
Jan. 2015 123.66 122.36
Feb. 2015 122.7 122.56
Mar. 2015 121.69 126.2
Apr. 2015 120.77 121.2
May. 2015 119.96 118.81
June. 2015 119.26 120.04
July. 2015 118.66 116.78
Aug. 2015 118.09 118.68
Sep. 2015 117.51 118.6
Oct. 2015 116.91 115.85
Nov. 2015 116.32 116.83
Dec. 2015 115.83 115.47
Jan. 2016 115.49 114.94
Feb. 2016 115.22 115.26
Mar. 2016 114.91 117.24
Apr. 2016 114.43 114.16
May. 2016 113.78 114.63
June. 2016 113.07 112.29
July. 2016 112.4 115.75
Aug. 2016 111.96 110.51
Sep. 2016 111.87 112.11
Oct. 2016 112.09 112.09
Nov. 2016 112.49 112.07
Dec. 2016 112.96 112.95
Jan. 2017 113.38 114.21
Feb. 2017 113.7 113.84
Mar. 2017 113.9 113.19
Apr. 2017 114.01 114.19
May. 2017 114.02 114.36
June. 2017 113.99 113.75
July. 2017 114.02 117.07
Aug. 2017 114.11 111.21
Sep. 2017 114.23 113.53
Oct. 2017 114.34 114.41
Nov. 2017 114.42 114.7
Dec. 2017 114.46 116.29
Jan. 2018 114.43 113.78
Feb. 2018 114.45 114.04
Mar. 2018 114.54 114.16
Apr. 2018 114.67 115.35

Three-month change: refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals contributed to decline

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, manufacturing output went down 0.3 per cent from February to April 2018 compared to the previous three-month period. The industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals decreased by 3.4 per cent and contributed the most to the overall decline in manufacturing output. Several other industries also contributed to the decline, amongst others, wood and wood products as well as basic metals, which went down 5.4 and 3.1 per cent respectively.

On the opposite side, petroleum-related industries such as machinery and equipment, together with ships, boats and oil platforms contributed to dampen the overall decline in manufacturing output. Machinery and equipment went up 3.5 per cent, while ships, boats and oil platforms saw a strong output increase of 7.4 per cent. The analytical grouping petroleum-related manufacturing had an overall growth of 1.3 per cent from February to April 2018 compared with the previous three-month period (see figure 3).

Figure 2. Selected industries in manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted, 3-month percentage change. February 2018-April 2018/November 2017-January 2018

3-month percentage change
Ships, boats and oil platforms 7.4
Machinery and equipment 3.5
Basic metals -3.1
Refined petro., chemicals, pharmac. -3.4
Wood and wood products -5.4
 

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 3. Indicator for petroleum-related industries. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

Petroleum-related manufacturing and support activities Petroleum-related manufacturing Manufacturing ex. petroleum-related industries
Jan. 2008 139.9 104.8
Feb. 2008 142.1 105.6
Mar. 2008 141.8 105.1
Apr. 2008 144.5 106.1
May. 2008 148.4 105.9
June. 2008 152.9 106.2
July. 2008 156.2 104.1
Aug. 2008 156.3 103.4
Sep. 2008 156.7 102.1
Oct. 2008 155.8 101.3
Nov. 2008 155.7 99.8
Dec. 2008 156.1 98.5
Jan. 2009 156.2 96.7
Feb. 2009 157 94.9
Mar. 2009 157.5 93.3
Apr. 2009 157.1 92.1
May. 2009 156.6 91
June. 2009 154.8 90.3
July. 2009 153.5 90.2
Aug. 2009 152.8 90.7
Sep. 2009 153.5 92
Oct. 2009 153.8 92.9
Nov. 2009 153.2 93.8
Dec. 2009 151.7 94.3
Jan. 2010 143.9 151 94.7
Feb. 2010 143.2 150.6 95.3
Mar. 2010 144.9 151.4 95.9
Apr. 2010 145.8 151.9 96.5
May. 2010 143.4 151.6 96
June. 2010 143.1 152.3 96.7
July. 2010 142.3 152.3 98.2
Aug. 2010 142.2 152 98.6
Sep. 2010 143 151.4 98.5
Oct. 2010 144.8 151.2 97.7
Nov. 2010 148.2 152.6 99
Dec. 2010 151 152.7 99
Jan. 2011 149.9 153 99
Feb. 2011 149.5 153.1 98.8
Mar. 2011 147.3 153.3 99.6
Apr. 2011 148.9 151.8 99.6
May. 2011 150.6 152.7 99.4
June. 2011 152.3 151.9 97.8
July. 2011 154.2 153 95.7
Aug. 2011 155.9 154.5 94.2
Sep. 2011 159.1 158.7 94.5
Oct. 2011 161.2 163.3 95.6
Nov. 2011 162.8 164.7 96.3
Dec. 2011 164.7 166.6 95.3
Jan. 2012 167.1 167.9 95.3
Feb. 2012 169.5 168.4 95.2
Mar. 2012 167.6 168 95.5
Apr. 2012 164.7 166.2 95.6
May. 2012 164.7 167.9 95.9
June. 2012 168.2 169.3 95.9
July. 2012 170.5 172.3 95.6
Aug. 2012 172.8 174.4 95.4
Sep. 2012 173.5 177 95.4
Oct. 2012 177.6 179.7 95
Nov. 2012 178.1 180.9 94.6
Dec. 2012 179.1 181.6 94.4
Jan. 2013 180.3 183.2 94.5
Feb. 2013 182.5 186.1 94.2
Mar. 2013 186.7 188.2 93.8
Apr. 2013 187.8 191.5 93.4
May. 2013 189.3 193.5 93
June. 2013 190.8 197.6 93.4
July. 2013 193.8 198.7 93.9
Aug. 2013 194.1 198.2 94.6
Sep. 2013 193.8 196.9 94.6
Oct. 2013 191.5 195 94.6
Nov. 2013 193 195.2 94.1
Dec. 2013 194 195.2 94.2
Jan. 2014 196.3 196.9 94.3
Feb. 2014 196.8 198.8 94.4
Mar. 2014 196 199.8 94
Apr. 2014 195.9 199.8 94.2
May. 2014 197.4 200.2 94.5
June. 2014 200.2 203.4 95.2
July. 2014 199.3 207.9 95.1
Aug. 2014 201.6 213.4 95.1
Sep. 2014 201.3 213.6 94.2
Oct. 2014 206.4 214.3 94.4
Nov. 2014 204.5 213 94
Dec. 2014 203.7 215.4 94.5
Jan. 2015 199.9 213.4 93.7
Feb. 2015 197.2 210.5 93.6
Mar. 2015 195.2 207.3 94.3
Apr. 2015 193.9 204.6 94.6
May. 2015 189 201.1 94.2
June. 2015 185 196 93.8
July. 2015 180.9 192.2 92.8
Aug. 2015 179.4 189.6 93.2
Sep. 2015 177.8 188 93.1
Oct. 2015 173.9 185.3 93.9
Nov. 2015 172.1 182.8 94.2
Dec. 2015 168.2 178.7 94.1
Jan. 2016 165.6 177.4 94.2
Feb. 2016 165 175.1 94.3
Mar. 2016 164.7 174.5 94.8
Apr. 2016 163.7 172.7 95
May. 2016 160.5 170.9 95.2
June. 2016 157.6 167.8 94.6
July. 2016 157.9 167.2 95
Aug. 2016 153.3 160.4 95
Sep. 2016 152 159.1 95.3
Oct. 2016 149.3 156.6 95
Nov. 2016 151.4 160 95
Dec. 2016 151.6 161.3 95.3
Jan. 2017 151.3 159.8 96.7
Feb. 2017 149.9 159.2 97.7
Mar. 2017 145.9 154.3 98.5
Apr. 2017 146.8 155.7 98.1
May. 2017 147.7 156.2 98.1
June. 2017 150.6 158.8 98.1
July. 2017 150 156.7 99.1
Aug. 2017 147 153.9 98.2
Sep. 2017 147 154.4 98
Oct. 2017 145.9 155.3 97.3
Nov. 2017 149.6 158.7 98.3
Dec. 2017 150.6 159.9 99.4
Jan. 2018 151.1 160.2 99.1
Feb. 2018 151 160.7 98.6
Mar. 2018 151.1 161.2 96.9
Apr. 2018 152.4 162.3 97.3

Monthly change: increase in manufacturing output from March to April 2018

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, manufacturing output went up 1.1 per cent from March to April. In contrast to the three-month change, the industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals contributed most to the overall manufacturing increase on a monthly basis, followed by wood and wood products.

Repair and installation of machinery saw a decline in activity level and contributed the most to dampen the overall increase from March to April. The decline in this industry was partly related to the completion of some large projects.

Small increase in output in the Euro area in March 2018

Estimated figures from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, indicate that output in manufacturing in the euro area  increased by 0.4 per cent from February to March 2018. Manufacturing output in Norway was more or less unchanged in the same period.

In two of our neighboring countries, Sweden and Denmark, the development in manufacturing output pointed in opposite directions from February to March. Sweden saw an increase of 0.5 per cent, while Denmark had a decline of 0.4 per cent.

Figure 4. Index of production for manufacturing. Euro area and Norway (2015=100). Seasonally adjusted

Euro area Norway
Jan. 2013 94.00 98.90
Feb. 2013 94.00 99.50
Mar. 2013 94.60 98.00
Apr. 2013 95.20 100.90
May. 2013 95.50 100.00
June. 2013 95.80 101.50
July. 2013 95.00 102.00
Aug. 2013 95.70 100.80
Sep. 2013 95.70 100.70
Oct. 2013 95.30 100.60
Nov. 2013 96.60 100.20
Dec. 2013 96.70 101.10
Jan. 2014 96.70 102.00
Feb. 2014 97.60 101.70
Mar. 2014 97.10 101.70
Apr. 2014 98.50 102.00
May. 2014 97.40 102.50
June. 2014 96.70 104.60
July. 2014 98.00 104.50
Aug. 2014 96.00 106.70
Sep. 2014 97.10 102.80
Oct. 2014 97.00 105.80
Nov. 2014 96.80 104.40
Dec. 2014 98.10 104.90
Jan. 2015 97.40 102.40
Feb. 2015 99.70 102.60
Mar. 2015 100.70 105.50
Apr. 2015 99.80 101.60
May. 2015 100.30 99.50
June. 2015 100.70 100.50
July. 2015 100.50 97.80
Aug. 2015 100.10 99.40
Sep. 2015 100.10 99.30
Oct. 2015 100.30 97.00
Nov. 2015 99.80 97.80
Dec. 2015 100.60 96.60
Jan. 2016 103.80 96.20
Feb. 2016 101.50 96.40
Mar. 2016 100.60 97.90
Apr. 2016 101.60 95.80
May. 2016 100.60 96.00
June. 2016 101.40 94.10
July. 2016 100.90 96.90
Aug. 2016 101.80 92.50
Sep. 2016 101.70 93.90
Oct. 2016 103.20 93.90
Nov. 2016 102.70 93.80
Dec. 2016 102.30 94.40
Jan. 2017 102.00 95.60
Feb. 2017 103.20 95.20
Mar. 2017 103.80 94.50
Apr. 2017 103.60 96.00
May. 2017 104.60 95.80
June. 2017 103.40 95.30
July. 2017 105.00 98.00
Aug. 2017 106.40 93.10
Sep. 2017 106.30 95.10
Oct. 2017 106.50 95.80
Nov. 2017 108.00 96.00
Dec. 2017 107.70 97.10
Jan. 2018 108.00 95.20
Feb. 2018 105.90 95.30
Mar. 2018 106.30 95.20
Apr. 2018

Three-month change: growth in total industrial production (PII)

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, the total production index (PII) covering extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply increased by 0.7 per cent from February to April 2018 compared with the previous three-month period. Extraction of crude petroleum saw a decline of 0.8 per cent, and extraction of natural gas decreased by 1.5 per cent. For more details about oil and gas extraction for April 2018, see the press release from The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Within support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction, there was a decline of 0.4 per cent from February to April 2018 compared with the previous three-month period. In the same period, mining and quarrying, as well as production within Norwegian electricity supply was almost unchanged.

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 5. Production development. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

Manufacturing Extraction, mining, manufacturing and elec. Extraction and related services
Jan. 2008 114.1 95.9 89.4
Feb. 2008 115.3 95.5 88.4
Mar. 2008 114.6 96.1 89.3
Apr. 2008 116.1 96.7 89.2
May. 2008 117.1 97.9 90.4
June. 2008 118.7 98.5 90.4
July. 2008 117.6 98.8 91.4
Aug. 2008 117 96.8 88.9
Sep. 2008 116.2 95.8 88.2
Oct. 2008 115.6 95.4 88
Nov. 2008 114.4 97 90.6
Dec. 2008 113.5 97.7 91.8
Jan. 2009 112.1 96.9 91.1
Feb. 2009 110.9 97.3 92.1
Mar. 2009 109.8 96.5 91.3
Apr. 2009 108.9 96 90.9
May. 2009 107.6 93.4 87.7
June. 2009 106.7 92.2 86.6
July. 2009 106.1 91.5 86.1
Aug. 2009 106.6 92.2 86.9
Sep. 2009 107.7 93.2 87.6
Oct. 2009 108.5 93.3 87
Nov. 2009 109.2 93.4 86.8
Dec. 2009 109.3 92.5 85.4
Jan. 2010 109.4 92.3 85.1
Feb. 2010 109.7 92 84.7
Mar. 2010 110.1 91.6 84.4
Apr. 2010 110.8 90.9 83.8
May. 2010 110.3 90.3 83.6
June. 2010 111.1 89.3 82.2
July. 2010 111.8 88.1 80.4
Aug. 2010 112 84.9 75.7
Sep. 2010 111.7 83.6 73.7
Oct. 2010 111.4 84.8 75.3
Nov. 2010 112.6 87.4 77.9
Dec. 2010 112.6 89.1 80
Jan. 2011 112.7 87.7 78.4
Feb. 2011 112.6 87 77.9
Mar. 2011 113.1 85.8 76.5
Apr. 2011 112.9 84.7 74.9
May. 2011 113 82.3 71.1
June. 2011 111.7 81.7 70
July. 2011 110.2 81.9 69.7
Aug. 2011 109.6 84.3 72.6
Sep. 2011 110.9 85.6 74.2
Oct. 2011 112.9 86.1 74.5
Nov. 2011 113.8 86.4 74.7
Dec. 2011 113.5 85.3 73.6
Jan. 2012 113.9 86.6 74.8
Feb. 2012 113.9 87.3 75.1
Mar. 2012 114 88.4 75.8
Apr. 2012 113.7 88.4 75.5
May. 2012 114.4 88.5 75.5
June. 2012 114.8 88.9 76
July. 2012 115.3 88 75.1
Aug. 2012 115.7 87.3 74
Sep. 2012 116.3 85 70.4
Oct. 2012 116.8 85.2 70.4
Nov. 2012 116.8 84.3 69.3
Dec. 2012 116.7 85.3 70.9
Jan. 2013 117.2 83.8 70.1
Feb. 2013 117.7 82.4 69.3
Mar. 2013 118 80.7 68.4
Apr. 2013 118.8 81.1 68.9
May. 2013 119 82.8 71.1
June. 2013 120.4 84 72.4
July. 2013 120.8 85.1 73.6
Aug. 2013 121.1 84.5 72.8
Sep. 2013 120.8 83.9 72.1
Oct. 2013 120.3 81.6 69.4
Nov. 2013 120.1 81.5 69.3
Dec. 2013 120.2 82 69.9
Jan. 2014 120.8 83.7 71.5
Feb. 2014 121.3 84.3 71.8
Mar. 2014 121.6 85.2 72.3
Apr. 2014 121.6 85.4 72.3
May. 2014 121.9 84.2 70.2
June. 2014 123 84 69.5
July. 2014 124 83.8 69
Aug. 2014 125.7 85 70.5
Sep. 2014 125 85.5 71.4
Oct. 2014 125.5 86.8 73
Nov. 2014 124.6 87.4 73.9
Dec. 2014 125.5 87.5 73.8
Jan. 2015 124.2 86.2 72.6
Feb. 2015 123.5 86.1 72.8
Mar. 2015 123.7 86.3 73
Apr. 2015 123.3 85.4 71.7
May. 2015 122.1 84.9 71.3
June. 2015 120 85 72.2
July. 2015 118.5 86.4 74.4
Aug. 2015 118.5 87.4 75.8
Sep. 2015 118 87.6 76.2
Oct. 2015 117.7 87.7 76.4
Nov. 2015 117.1 86.9 75.5
Dec. 2015 116.1 85.6 74.4
Jan. 2016 115.7 85.5 74.1
Feb. 2016 115.2 85.6 74.1
Mar. 2016 115.8 85.8 73.9
Apr. 2016 115.6 86 74.2
May. 2016 115.3 86.2 74.6
June. 2016 113.7 85.2 74
July. 2016 114.2 85.2 73.8
Aug. 2016 112.9 83.7 72.3
Sep. 2016 112.8 81.8 69.6
Oct. 2016 111.6 82 70.3
Nov. 2016 112.1 83.6 72.4
Dec. 2016 112.4 86.1 75.8
Jan. 2017 113.1 86.1 74.8
Feb. 2017 113.7 86 73.7
Mar. 2017 113.7 86.9 74.1
Apr. 2017 113.7 87 74.3
May. 2017 113.9 86.9 74.1
June. 2017 114.1 87 73.9
July. 2017 115.1 87.2 73.8
Aug. 2017 114 87.5 74.7
Sep. 2017 113.9 87.3 74.2
Oct. 2017 113 86.3 73.1
Nov. 2017 114.2 85.6 71.6
Dec. 2017 115.1 85.3 70.9
Jan. 2018 114.9 86.3 71.4
Feb. 2018 114.7 87.1 71.2
Mar. 2018 114 87.7 71
Apr. 2018 114.5 86.9 70

On the effect of Easter

It is important to be aware that the uncertainty for the calendar-adjusted and seasonally-adjusted indices for March and April is greater than normal due to the changed placing of Easter. This effect will also affect the seasonally-adjusted figures for the 1st and 2nd quarters. This is accounted for when adjusting for seasonal variations. However, it can still be difficult to adjust for all impacts.

 

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