Output decline in manufacturing in the first quarter of 2018

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Norwegian manufacturing output declined 1.1 per cent from the fourth quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of 2018, according to seasonally-adjusted figures. On a month to month basis, from February to March 2018, output was almost unchanged with a minor fall of 0.1 per cent.

The index level for Norwegian manufacturing in the first quarter of 2018 amounted to 113.8 (2005=100). The corresponding figure for the previous quarter was 115.1. Smoothed seasonally-adjusted figures indicate a decreasing trend for the last three months (see figure 1).

Figure 1. Production development in manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted and smoothed seasonally adjusted figures. 2005=100

Smoothed seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted
Jan. 2013 117.83 118.08
Feb. 2013 118.43 118.83
Mar. 2013 119.15 117.1
Apr. 2013 119.85 120.49
May. 2013 120.42 119.44
June. 2013 120.75 121.23
July. 2013 120.82 121.83
Aug. 2013 120.69 120.44
Sep. 2013 120.5 120.28
Oct. 2013 120.36 120.19
Nov. 2013 120.39 119.65
Dec. 2013 120.56 120.76
Jan. 2014 120.9 121.86
Feb. 2014 121.29 121.45
Mar. 2014 121.78 121.49
Apr. 2014 122.38 121.79
May. 2014 123.11 122.38
June. 2014 123.93 124.92
July. 2014 124.76 124.79
Aug. 2014 125.4 127.41
Sep. 2014 125.67 122.78
Oct. 2014 125.53 126.36
Nov. 2014 125.08 124.74
Dec. 2014 124.39 125.35
Jan. 2015 123.57 122.36
Feb. 2015 122.63 122.53
Mar. 2015 121.66 125.97
Apr. 2015 120.77 121.39
May. 2015 120 118.87
June. 2015 119.31 120.09
July. 2015 118.7 116.81
Aug. 2015 118.11 118.68
Sep. 2015 117.5 118.65
Oct. 2015 116.88 115.85
Nov. 2015 116.29 116.86
Dec. 2015 115.83 115.36
Jan. 2016 115.54 114.93
Feb. 2016 115.33 115.21
Mar. 2016 115.08 116.95
Apr. 2016 114.63 114.47
May. 2016 113.98 114.71
June. 2016 113.24 112.35
July. 2016 112.53 115.78
Aug. 2016 112.04 110.52
Sep. 2016 111.92 112.17
Oct. 2016 112.1 112.12
Nov. 2016 112.44 112.05
Dec. 2016 112.87 112.78
Jan. 2017 113.29 114.18
Feb. 2017 113.65 113.72
Mar. 2017 113.91 112.91
Apr. 2017 114.08 114.67
May. 2017 114.14 114.45
June. 2017 114.12 113.81
July. 2017 114.13 117.1
Aug. 2017 114.21 111.2
Sep. 2017 114.33 113.58
Oct. 2017 114.47 114.45
Nov. 2017 114.58 114.68
Dec. 2017 114.54 116.02
Jan. 2018 114.34 113.66
Feb. 2018 114.07 113.87
Mar. 2018 113.82 113.76

Three-month change: growth in petroleum-related manufacturing, clear fall in other manufacturing branches

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, manufacturing output saw a decrease of 1.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the previous quarter. The decline is particularly due to low production within food products, as well as in the industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals.

On the other hand, ships, boats and oil platforms saw a clear production increase, and contributed the most to dampen the overall output decline. The industry had a strong output growth of 6.4 per cent due to high activity within both shipbuilding and building of platforms. The analytical grouping petroleum-related manufacturing had an overall growth of 1.0 per cent in the first quarter of 2018 compared with the previous quarter (see figure 3).

Figure 2. Selected industries in manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted, 3-month percentage change. January 2018-March 2018/October 2017-December 2017

3-month percentage change
Ships, boats and oil platforms 6.4
Machinery and equipment 1.5
Food products -2.2
Wood and wood products -4.0
Refined petro., chemicals, pharmac. -4.6

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 3. Indicator for petroleum-related industries. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

Petroleum-related manufacturing and support activities Petroleum-related manufacturing Manufacturing ex. petroleum-related industries
Jan. 2008 139.9 104.8
Feb. 2008 142.1 105.6
Mar. 2008 141.8 105.1
Apr. 2008 144.5 106.1
May. 2008 148.4 105.9
June. 2008 152.9 106.2
July. 2008 156.2 104.1
Aug. 2008 156.3 103.4
Sep. 2008 156.7 102.1
Oct. 2008 155.8 101.3
Nov. 2008 155.7 99.8
Dec. 2008 156.1 98.5
Jan. 2009 156.2 96.7
Feb. 2009 157 94.9
Mar. 2009 157.5 93.3
Apr. 2009 157.1 92.1
May. 2009 156.6 91
June. 2009 154.8 90.3
July. 2009 153.5 90.2
Aug. 2009 152.8 90.7
Sep. 2009 153.5 92
Oct. 2009 153.8 92.9
Nov. 2009 153.2 93.8
Dec. 2009 151.7 94.3
Jan. 2010 143.9 151 94.7
Feb. 2010 143.2 150.6 95.3
Mar. 2010 144.9 151.4 95.9
Apr. 2010 145.8 151.9 96.5
May. 2010 143.4 151.6 96
June. 2010 143.1 152.3 96.7
July. 2010 142.3 152.3 98.2
Aug. 2010 142.2 152 98.6
Sep. 2010 143 151.4 98.5
Oct. 2010 144.8 151.2 97.7
Nov. 2010 148.2 152.6 99
Dec. 2010 151 152.7 99
Jan. 2011 149.9 153 99
Feb. 2011 149.5 153.1 98.8
Mar. 2011 147.3 153.3 99.6
Apr. 2011 148.9 151.8 99.6
May. 2011 150.6 152.7 99.4
June. 2011 152.3 151.9 97.8
July. 2011 154.2 153 95.7
Aug. 2011 155.9 154.5 94.2
Sep. 2011 159.1 158.7 94.5
Oct. 2011 161.2 163.3 95.6
Nov. 2011 162.8 164.7 96.3
Dec. 2011 164.7 166.6 95.3
Jan. 2012 167.1 167.9 95.3
Feb. 2012 169.5 168.4 95.2
Mar. 2012 167.6 168 95.5
Apr. 2012 164.7 166.2 95.6
May. 2012 164.7 167.9 95.9
June. 2012 168.2 169.3 95.9
July. 2012 170.5 172.3 95.6
Aug. 2012 172.8 174.4 95.4
Sep. 2012 173.5 177 95.4
Oct. 2012 177.6 179.7 95
Nov. 2012 178.1 180.9 94.6
Dec. 2012 179.1 181.6 94.4
Jan. 2013 180.3 183.2 94.5
Feb. 2013 182.5 186.1 94.2
Mar. 2013 186.7 188.2 93.8
Apr. 2013 187.8 191.5 93.4
May. 2013 189.3 193.5 93
June. 2013 190.8 197.6 93.4
July. 2013 193.8 198.7 93.9
Aug. 2013 194.1 198.2 94.6
Sep. 2013 193.8 196.9 94.6
Oct. 2013 191.5 195 94.6
Nov. 2013 193 195.2 94.1
Dec. 2013 194 195.2 94.2
Jan. 2014 196.3 196.9 94.3
Feb. 2014 196.9 198.8 94.4
Mar. 2014 196 199.9 94
Apr. 2014 195.8 199.8 94.1
May. 2014 197.3 200.2 94.5
June. 2014 200.2 203.3 95.2
July. 2014 199.4 207.8 95.1
Aug. 2014 201.6 213.4 95.2
Sep. 2014 201.4 213.6 94.2
Oct. 2014 206.4 214.3 94.4
Nov. 2014 204.5 213 93.9
Dec. 2014 203.6 215.4 94.4
Jan. 2015 199.9 213.5 93.6
Feb. 2015 197.2 210.6 93.5
Mar. 2015 195.2 207.4 94.3
Apr. 2015 193.8 204.6 94.6
May. 2015 188.8 201.1 94.3
June. 2015 184.9 195.8 93.8
July. 2015 180.9 192.1 92.8
Aug. 2015 179.5 189.5 93.3
Sep. 2015 177.8 188 93.1
Oct. 2015 173.9 185.3 93.9
Nov. 2015 172.1 182.8 94.1
Dec. 2015 168.2 178.7 94
Jan. 2016 165.6 177.4 94.1
Feb. 2016 165 175.2 94.2
Mar. 2016 164.8 174.6 94.7
Apr. 2016 163.6 172.7 95
May. 2016 160.5 170.9 95.3
June. 2016 157.6 167.7 94.8
July. 2016 158 167.1 95
Aug. 2016 153.4 160.3 95
Sep. 2016 152 159 95.2
Oct. 2016 149.3 156.5 95
Nov. 2016 151.4 160.1 95
Dec. 2016 151.6 161.4 95.2
Jan. 2017 151.3 159.9 96.6
Feb. 2017 150 159.3 97.6
Mar. 2017 145.9 154.4 98.4
Apr. 2017 146.8 155.8 98.3
May. 2017 147.7 156.2 98.4
June. 2017 150.6 158.7 98.3
July. 2017 150.1 156.6 99.2
Aug. 2017 147 153.8 98.2
Sep. 2017 147 154.3 98
Oct. 2017 145.8 155.2 97.3
Nov. 2017 149.5 158.6 98.3
Dec. 2017 150.5 159.8 99.3
Jan. 2018 151.1 160.2 98.9
Feb. 2018 151 160.7 98.5
Mar. 2018 151 161.4 96.8

Monthly change: minor changes from February to March 2018

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, manufacturing output was almost unchanged from February to March 2018, with a slight decrease of 0.1 per cent. Petroleum-related industries such as machinery and equipment and ships, boats and oil platforms saw an increase in this period. On the other hand, the industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals together with wood and wood products had an output decline.

Twelve-month change: output growth in the Euro area, minor changes in Norway in February 2018

Estimated figures from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, indicate that output in manufacturing in the Euro area increased by 2.5 per cent from February 2017 to February 2018. According to calendar-adjusted figures, Norwegian manufacturing output was almost unchanged in the same period with a minor increase of 0.2 per cent. Ships, boats and oil platforms saw a strong increase, while the industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals together with food products had a clear output fall.

Figure 4. Index of production for manufacturing. Euro area and Norway (2015=100). Seasonally adjusted

Euro area Norway
Jan. 2013 93.90 98.80
Feb. 2013 93.90 99.50
Mar. 2013 94.50 98.00
Apr. 2013 95.10 100.90
May. 2013 95.60 100.00
June. 2013 95.80 101.50
July. 2013 95.10 102.00
Aug. 2013 95.60 100.80
Sep. 2013 95.70 100.70
Oct. 2013 95.30 100.60
Nov. 2013 96.60 100.20
Dec. 2013 96.50 101.10
Jan. 2014 96.80 102.00
Feb. 2014 97.60 101.70
Mar. 2014 97.00 101.60
Apr. 2014 98.50 102.00
May. 2014 97.40 102.40
June. 2014 96.80 104.60
July. 2014 98.00 104.50
Aug. 2014 95.80 106.70
Sep. 2014 97.00 102.80
Oct. 2014 97.00 105.80
Nov. 2014 96.70 104.40
Dec. 2014 98.00 104.90
Jan. 2015 97.50 102.40
Feb. 2015 99.70 102.60
Mar. 2015 100.50 105.30
Apr. 2015 99.80 101.60
May. 2015 100.30 99.50
June. 2015 100.70 100.50
July. 2015 100.50 97.80
Aug. 2015 100.10 99.40
Sep. 2015 100.10 99.30
Oct. 2015 100.30 97.00
Nov. 2015 99.90 97.80
Dec. 2015 100.70 96.60
Jan. 2016 103.80 96.20
Feb. 2016 101.50 96.50
Mar. 2016 100.30 97.80
Apr. 2016 101.60 95.80
May. 2016 100.50 96.00
June. 2016 101.40 94.10
July. 2016 100.90 97.00
Aug. 2016 101.90 92.50
Sep. 2016 101.60 93.90
Oct. 2016 103.20 93.90
Nov. 2016 102.80 93.80
Dec. 2016 102.40 94.40
Jan. 2017 102.10 95.60
Feb. 2017 103.20 95.20
Mar. 2017 103.40 94.40
Apr. 2017 103.60 96.00
May. 2017 104.50 95.80
June. 2017 103.40 95.30
July. 2017 105.00 98.10
Aug. 2017 106.80 93.10
Sep. 2017 106.20 95.10
Oct. 2017 106.50 95.80
Nov. 2017 108.20 96.00
Dec. 2017 107.90 97.10
Jan. 2018 108.10 95.20
Feb. 2018 105.90 95.40

Three-month change: solid growth in total industrial production (PII)

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, the total production index (PII) covering extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply increased by 2.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2018 compared with the previous quarter. Extraction of crude petroleum saw a clear increase of 3.1 per cent, while extraction of natural gas was more or less unchanged. For more details about oil and gas extraction for March 2018, see the press release from The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Within support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction, output saw a decrease of 1.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2018 compared with the previous quarter. In the same period, mining and quarrying saw a clear output growth of 6.7 per cent, while production within Norwegian electricity supply went up by 2.0 per cent.

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 5. Production development. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

Manufacturing Extraction, mining, manufacturing and elec. Extraction and related services
Jan. 2008 114.1 95.9 89.4
Feb. 2008 115.3 95.5 88.4
Mar. 2008 114.6 96.1 89.3
Apr. 2008 116.1 96.7 89.2
May. 2008 117.1 97.9 90.4
June. 2008 118.7 98.5 90.4
July. 2008 117.6 98.8 91.4
Aug. 2008 117 96.8 88.9
Sep. 2008 116.2 95.8 88.2
Oct. 2008 115.6 95.4 88
Nov. 2008 114.4 97 90.6
Dec. 2008 113.5 97.7 91.8
Jan. 2009 112.1 96.9 91.1
Feb. 2009 110.9 97.3 92.1
Mar. 2009 109.8 96.5 91.3
Apr. 2009 108.9 96 90.9
May. 2009 107.6 93.4 87.7
June. 2009 106.7 92.2 86.6
July. 2009 106.1 91.5 86.1
Aug. 2009 106.6 92.2 86.9
Sep. 2009 107.7 93.2 87.6
Oct. 2009 108.5 93.3 87
Nov. 2009 109.2 93.4 86.8
Dec. 2009 109.3 92.5 85.4
Jan. 2010 109.4 92.3 85.1
Feb. 2010 109.7 92 84.7
Mar. 2010 110.1 91.6 84.4
Apr. 2010 110.8 90.9 83.8
May. 2010 110.3 90.3 83.6
June. 2010 111.1 89.3 82.2
July. 2010 111.8 88.1 80.4
Aug. 2010 112 84.9 75.7
Sep. 2010 111.7 83.6 73.7
Oct. 2010 111.4 84.8 75.3
Nov. 2010 112.6 87.4 77.9
Dec. 2010 112.6 89.1 80
Jan. 2011 112.7 87.7 78.4
Feb. 2011 112.6 87 77.9
Mar. 2011 113.1 85.8 76.5
Apr. 2011 112.9 84.7 74.9
May. 2011 113 82.3 71.1
June. 2011 111.7 81.7 70
July. 2011 110.2 81.9 69.7
Aug. 2011 109.6 84.3 72.6
Sep. 2011 110.9 85.6 74.2
Oct. 2011 112.9 86.1 74.5
Nov. 2011 113.8 86.4 74.7
Dec. 2011 113.5 85.3 73.6
Jan. 2012 113.9 86.6 74.8
Feb. 2012 113.9 87.3 75.1
Mar. 2012 114 88.4 75.8
Apr. 2012 113.7 88.4 75.5
May. 2012 114.4 88.5 75.5
June. 2012 114.8 88.9 76
July. 2012 115.3 88 75.1
Aug. 2012 115.7 87.3 74
Sep. 2012 116.3 85 70.4
Oct. 2012 116.8 85.2 70.4
Nov. 2012 116.8 84.3 69.3
Dec. 2012 116.7 85.3 70.9
Jan. 2013 117.2 83.8 70.1
Feb. 2013 117.7 82.4 69.3
Mar. 2013 118 80.7 68.4
Apr. 2013 118.8 81.1 68.9
May. 2013 119 82.8 71.1
June. 2013 120.4 84 72.4
July. 2013 120.8 85.1 73.6
Aug. 2013 121.1 84.5 72.8
Sep. 2013 120.8 83.9 72.1
Oct. 2013 120.3 81.6 69.4
Nov. 2013 120.1 81.5 69.3
Dec. 2013 120.2 82 69.9
Jan. 2014 120.8 83.7 71.5
Feb. 2014 121.4 84.3 71.8
Mar. 2014 121.6 85.2 72.3
Apr. 2014 121.6 85.3 72.3
May. 2014 121.9 84.2 70.2
June. 2014 123 84 69.5
July. 2014 124 83.8 69
Aug. 2014 125.7 85 70.5
Sep. 2014 125 85.5 71.4
Oct. 2014 125.5 86.8 73
Nov. 2014 124.6 87.4 73.9
Dec. 2014 125.5 87.5 73.8
Jan. 2015 124.2 86.2 72.6
Feb. 2015 123.4 86.1 72.8
Mar. 2015 123.6 86.3 73
Apr. 2015 123.3 85.3 71.7
May. 2015 122.1 84.9 71.3
June. 2015 120.1 85.1 72.2
July. 2015 118.6 86.4 74.4
Aug. 2015 118.5 87.4 75.8
Sep. 2015 118.1 87.6 76.2
Oct. 2015 117.8 87.6 76.4
Nov. 2015 117.2 86.8 75.5
Dec. 2015 116.1 85.6 74.4
Jan. 2016 115.7 85.5 74
Feb. 2016 115.2 85.6 74.1
Mar. 2016 115.7 85.8 73.9
Apr. 2016 115.6 86 74.3
May. 2016 115.4 86.3 74.7
June. 2016 113.9 85.3 74
July. 2016 114.3 85.2 73.8
Aug. 2016 112.9 83.8 72.3
Sep. 2016 112.8 81.7 69.6
Oct. 2016 111.6 82 70.3
Nov. 2016 112.1 83.6 72.3
Dec. 2016 112.3 86.1 75.7
Jan. 2017 113 86.1 74.7
Feb. 2017 113.6 86 73.7
Mar. 2017 113.6 86.8 74.2
Apr. 2017 113.8 87 74.3
May. 2017 114 87 74.2
June. 2017 114.3 87 74
July. 2017 115.1 87.2 73.9
Aug. 2017 114 87.6 74.7
Sep. 2017 114 87.2 74.1
Oct. 2017 113.1 86.3 73
Nov. 2017 114.3 85.6 71.5
Dec. 2017 115.1 85.3 70.9
Jan. 2018 114.8 86.3 71.4
Feb. 2018 114.5 87 71.2
Mar. 2018 113.8 87.6 71.2

On the effect of Easter

It is important to be aware that the uncertainty for the calendar-adjusted and seasonally-adjusted indices for March and April is greater than normal due to the changed placing of Easter. This effect will also affect the seasonally-adjusted figures for the 1st and 2nd quarters. This is accounted for when adjusting for seasonal variations. However, it can still be difficult to adjust for all impacts.

 

 

 

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