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Minor output decline in manufacturing

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Norwegian manufacturing output saw a minor decline of 0.4 per cent from the fourth quarter of 2018 to the first quarter of 2019, according to seasonally-adjusted figures. Petroleum-related manufacturing had a clear increase in this period, while other manufacturing branches contributed negatively.

The index level for Norwegian manufacturing in the first quarter of 2019 amounted to 117.5 (2005=100). The corresponding figure for the previous quarter was 118. Smoothed seasonally-adjusted figures indicate a slightly decreasing trend for the last three months (see figure 1).

 

Figure 1. Production development in manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted and smoothed seasonally adjusted figures. 2005=100

Smoothed seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted
Jan. 2014 121.0 121.8
Feb. 2014 121.4 121.5
Mar. 2014 121.9 122.0
Apr. 2014 122.5 121.9
May 2014 123.1 122.5
June 2014 123.9 125.0
July 2014 124.6 123.7
Aug. 2014 125.2 126.9
Sep. 2014 125.5 122.9
Oct. 2014 125.4 126.3
Nov. 2014 125.1 124.8
Dec. 2014 124.5 125.3
Jan. 2015 123.7 122.4
Feb. 2015 122.8 122.6
Mar. 2015 121.9 126.6
Apr. 2015 121.0 121.4
May 2015 120.2 119.0
June 2015 119.5 120.3
July 2015 118.8 115.4
Aug. 2015 118.2 118.0
Sep. 2015 117.5 118.9
Oct. 2015 116.9 115.8
Nov. 2015 116.2 116.8
Dec. 2015 115.7 115.2
Jan. 2016 115.4 115.0
Feb. 2016 115.1 115.3
Mar. 2016 114.9 117.8
Apr. 2016 114.6 114.4
May 2016 114.2 114.9
June 2016 113.7 112.7
July 2016 113.2 114.1
Aug. 2016 112.7 109.8
Sep. 2016 112.4 112.5
Oct. 2016 112.3 112.1
Nov. 2016 112.5 112.0
Dec. 2016 112.9 112.6
Jan. 2017 113.3 114.2
Feb. 2017 113.8 114.0
Mar. 2017 114.2 113.9
Apr. 2017 114.4 114.5
May 2017 114.6 114.7
June 2017 114.5 114.3
July 2017 114.5 115.1
Aug. 2017 114.5 110.5
Sep. 2017 114.5 114.2
Oct. 2017 114.5 114.2
Nov. 2017 114.5 114.6
Dec. 2017 114.5 115.7
Jan. 2018 114.6 113.6
Feb. 2018 114.7 114.2
Mar. 2018 114.8 115.0
Apr. 2018 115.1 115.8
May 2018 115.4 115.2
June 2018 115.7 115.3
July 2018 116.0 116.5
Aug. 2018 116.4 116.5
Sep. 2018 116.9 116.1
Oct. 2018 117.4 117.8
Nov. 2018 117.7 117.8
Dec. 2018 117.9 118.3
Jan. 2019 117.8 118.1
Feb. 2019 117.6 117.7
Mar. 2019 117.3 116.7

Three-month change: growth in petroleum-related manufacturing, fall in other manufacturing branches

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, manufacturing output was more or less unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2018 to the first quarter of 2019 with a minor decrease of 0.4 per cent. Industries such as fabricated metal products and ships, boats and oil platforms saw a clear production growth in this period. Consequently, petroleum-related manufacturing saw a total increase of 3.2 per cent (see figure 2).  

On the other hand, the industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceutical products contributed the most to pull the overall manufacturing output down. The downturn is related to shutdown for maintenance work among several leading producers. In addition, food products also had a clear fall due to low production within processing and preserving of fish.

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 2. Indicator for petroleum-related industries. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

Petroleum-related manufacturing and support activities Petroleum-related manufacturing Manufacturing ex. petroleum-related industries
Jan. 2009 156.2 96.7
Feb. 2009 157.0 94.9
Mar. 2009 157.5 93.3
Apr. 2009 157.1 92.1
May. 2009 156.6 91.0
June. 2009 154.8 90.3
July. 2009 153.5 90.2
Aug. 2009 152.8 90.7
Sep. 2009 153.5 92.0
Oct. 2009 153.8 92.9
Nov. 2009 153.2 93.8
Dec. 2009 151.7 94.3
Jan. 2010 143.9 151.0 94.7
Feb. 2010 143.2 150.6 95.3
Mar. 2010 144.9 151.4 95.9
Apr. 2010 145.8 151.9 96.5
May. 2010 143.4 151.6 96.0
June. 2010 143.1 152.3 96.7
July. 2010 142.3 152.3 98.2
Aug. 2010 142.2 152.0 98.6
Sep. 2010 143.0 151.4 98.5
Oct. 2010 144.8 151.2 97.7
Nov. 2010 148.2 152.6 99.0
Dec. 2010 151.0 152.7 99.0
Jan. 2011 149.9 153.0 99.0
Feb. 2011 149.5 153.1 98.8
Mar. 2011 147.3 153.3 99.6
Apr. 2011 148.9 151.8 99.6
May. 2011 150.6 152.7 99.4
June. 2011 152.3 151.9 97.8
July. 2011 154.2 153.0 95.7
Aug. 2011 155.9 154.5 94.2
Sep. 2011 159.1 158.7 94.5
Oct. 2011 161.2 163.3 95.6
Nov. 2011 162.8 164.7 96.3
Dec. 2011 164.7 166.6 95.3
Jan. 2012 167.1 167.9 95.3
Feb. 2012 169.5 168.4 95.2
Mar. 2012 167.6 168.0 95.5
Apr. 2012 164.7 166.2 95.6
May. 2012 164.7 167.9 95.9
June. 2012 168.2 169.3 95.9
July. 2012 170.5 172.3 95.6
Aug. 2012 172.8 174.4 95.4
Sep. 2012 173.5 177.0 95.4
Oct. 2012 177.6 179.7 95.0
Nov. 2012 178.1 180.9 94.6
Dec. 2012 179.1 181.6 94.4
Jan. 2013 180.3 183.2 94.5
Feb. 2013 182.5 186.1 94.2
Mar. 2013 186.7 188.2 93.8
Apr. 2013 187.8 191.5 93.4
May. 2013 189.3 193.5 93.0
June. 2013 190.8 197.6 93.4
July. 2013 193.8 198.7 93.9
Aug. 2013 194.1 198.2 94.6
Sep. 2013 193.8 196.9 94.6
Oct. 2013 191.5 195.0 94.6
Nov. 2013 193.0 195.2 94.1
Dec. 2013 194.0 195.2 94.2
Jan. 2014 196.3 196.8 94.2
Feb. 2014 196.8 198.6 94.3
Mar. 2014 196.0 199.6 94.1
Apr. 2014 195.8 199.6 94.2
May. 2014 197.3 200.0 94.6
June. 2014 200.1 203.4 95.2
July. 2014 199.3 207.9 95.0
Aug. 2014 201.7 213.6 95.1
Sep. 2014 201.4 213.8 94.1
Oct. 2014 206.5 214.5 94.3
Nov. 2014 204.5 212.9 93.9
Dec. 2014 203.6 214.8 94.4
Jan. 2015 199.9 212.8 93.6
Feb. 2015 197.1 209.9 93.5
Mar. 2015 195.1 207.0 94.4
Apr. 2015 193.7 204.3 94.7
May. 2015 188.8 201.1 94.3
June. 2015 184.7 196.1 93.9
July. 2015 180.8 192.7 92.7
Aug. 2015 179.6 189.9 93.1
Sep. 2015 178.1 188.3 93.0
Oct. 2015 174.0 185.5 93.8
Nov. 2015 172.1 182.8 94.1
Dec. 2015 168.2 178.2 93.9
Jan. 2016 165.5 176.5 94.0
Feb. 2016 164.9 174.1 94.2
Mar. 2016 164.8 173.9 95.0
Apr. 2016 163.5 172.2 95.3
May. 2016 160.3 170.9 95.5
June. 2016 157.1 167.9 94.9
July. 2016 157.8 167.7 94.9
Aug. 2016 153.5 161.0 94.8
Sep. 2016 152.4 159.6 95.0
Oct. 2016 149.6 156.9 94.8
Nov. 2016 151.4 160.1 94.9
Dec. 2016 151.6 160.9 95.0
Jan. 2017 151.3 158.9 96.5
Feb. 2017 149.8 158.1 97.6
Mar. 2017 145.9 153.6 98.8
Apr. 2017 146.7 155.3 98.6
May. 2017 147.6 156.3 98.6
June. 2017 150.0 159.1 98.3
July. 2017 149.8 157.5 98.9
Aug. 2017 147.2 154.7 97.9
Sep. 2017 147.7 155.0 97.7
Oct. 2017 146.3 155.8 97.1
Nov. 2017 149.6 158.8 98.1
Dec. 2017 150.5 159.2 98.9
Jan. 2018 150.9 158.8 98.7
Feb. 2018 150.7 159.0 98.5
Mar. 2018 151.1 160.3 97.3
Apr. 2018 152.4 161.8 97.9
May. 2018 153.9 162.1 98.1
June. 2018 154.9 162.0 98.6
July. 2018 154.1 162.2 98.7
Aug. 2018 154.5 163.3 98.9
Sep. 2018 154.5 165.0 98.6
Oct. 2018 157.9 166.2 98.8
Nov. 2018 160.3 168.6 98.9
Dec. 2018 162.1 170.6 99.5
Jan. 2019 164.2 173.7 98.9
Feb. 2019 166.5 175.7 98.5
Mar. 2019 167.8 176.0 97.5

Monthly change: decline in manufacturing output from February to March 2019

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, overall manufacturing output had a decrease of 0.8 per cent from February to March 2019. The decline is particularly due to low production in food products. In addition, basic metals together with the industry grouping computer and electrical equipment contributed also negatively. 

Small changes both in the Euro area and in Norway in February 2019

Estimated figures from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, indicate that output in manufacturing in the Euro area had a marginal increase of 0.3 per cent from January to February 2019. In the same period, Norwegian manufacturing output saw a minor fall of 0.3 per cent.

Manufacturing output in Sweden saw a marginal increase in the same period, while there was a clear decline in Denmark. 

Figure 3. Index of production for manufacturing. Euro area and Norway (2015=100). Seasonally adjusted

Euro area Norway
Jan. 2014 96.7 102.0
Feb. 2014 97.6 101.8
Mar. 2014 97.1 102.1
Apr. 2014 98.5 102.1
May. 2014 97.4 102.6
June. 2014 96.8 104.7
July. 2014 98.0 103.7
Aug. 2014 95.9 106.3
Sep. 2014 97.0 103.0
Oct. 2014 96.9 105.8
Nov. 2014 96.7 104.5
Dec. 2014 98.0 105.0
Jan. 2015 97.5 102.5
Feb. 2015 99.7 102.7
Mar. 2015 100.6 106.0
Apr. 2015 99.9 101.7
May. 2015 100.3 99.7
June. 2015 100.7 100.8
July. 2015 100.7 96.7
Aug. 2015 99.8 98.8
Sep. 2015 100.2 99.6
Oct. 2015 99.9 97.1
Nov. 2015 100.0 97.9
Dec. 2015 100.8 96.6
Jan. 2016 103.9 96.3
Feb. 2016 101.6 96.7
Mar. 2016 100.6 98.5
Apr. 2016 101.7 95.8
May. 2016 100.4 96.2
June. 2016 101.5 94.4
July. 2016 101.2 95.5
Aug. 2016 101.6 92.0
Sep. 2016 101.6 94.2
Oct. 2016 102.7 93.9
Nov. 2016 103.1 93.9
Dec. 2016 102.6 94.4
Jan. 2017 102.1 95.7
Feb. 2017 103.2 95.5
Mar. 2017 103.6 95.1
Apr. 2017 104.0 95.9
May. 2017 104.4 96.1
June. 2017 103.7 95.7
July. 2017 105.5 96.4
Aug. 2017 106.1 92.5
Sep. 2017 106.1 95.7
Oct. 2017 105.7 95.7
Nov. 2017 108.4 96.1
Dec. 2017 108.5 97.0
Jan. 2018 107.9 95.3
Feb. 2018 105.8 95.8
Mar. 2018 106.2 95.9
Apr. 2018 106.3 96.9
May. 2018 107.7 96.4
June. 2018 106.9 96.6
July. 2018 105.9 97.6
Aug. 2018 107.2 97.6
Sep. 2018 106.8 97.2
Oct. 2018 106.9 98.7
Nov. 2018 105.3 98.7
Dec. 2018 104.5 99.2
Jan. 2019 106.1 99.1
Feb. 2019 106.4 98.7

Three-month change: clear drop in total industrial production (PII)

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, the total production index (PII) covering extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply saw a clear drop of as much as 4.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2019 compared with the previous quarter. Extraction of crude petroleum decreased strongly with 5.6 per cent, while extraction of natural gas had a decline of 1.9 per cent. For more details about oil and gas extraction for March 2019, see the press release from The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Within support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction, there was a strong output increase equivalent to 5.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2019 compared with the previous quarter. The growth is partly related to an investment increase in the Norwegian oil and gas sector

Mining and quarrying also saw a production growth of 3.2 per cent in the same period, while output within Norwegian electricity supply went down strongly with 12 per cent. The decline in electricity supply must be seen in context with a relatively warm winter.

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 4. Production development. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

Manufacturing Extraction, mining, manufacturing and elec. Extraction and related services
Jan. 2009 112.1 96.9 91.1
Feb. 2009 110.9 97.3 92.1
Mar. 2009 109.8 96.5 91.3
Apr. 2009 108.9 96.0 90.9
May. 2009 107.6 93.4 87.7
June. 2009 106.7 92.2 86.6
July. 2009 106.1 91.5 86.1
Aug. 2009 106.6 92.2 86.9
Sep. 2009 107.7 93.2 87.6
Oct. 2009 108.5 93.3 87.0
Nov. 2009 109.2 93.4 86.8
Dec. 2009 109.3 92.5 85.4
Jan. 2010 109.4 92.3 85.1
Feb. 2010 109.7 92.0 84.7
Mar. 2010 110.1 91.6 84.4
Apr. 2010 110.8 90.9 83.8
May. 2010 110.3 90.3 83.6
June. 2010 111.1 89.3 82.2
July. 2010 111.8 88.1 80.4
Aug. 2010 112.0 84.9 75.7
Sep. 2010 111.7 83.6 73.7
Oct. 2010 111.4 84.8 75.3
Nov. 2010 112.6 87.4 77.9
Dec. 2010 112.6 89.1 80.0
Jan. 2011 112.7 87.7 78.4
Feb. 2011 112.6 87.0 77.9
Mar. 2011 113.1 85.8 76.5
Apr. 2011 112.9 84.7 74.9
May. 2011 113.0 82.3 71.1
June. 2011 111.7 81.7 70.0
July. 2011 110.2 81.9 69.7
Aug. 2011 109.6 84.3 72.6
Sep. 2011 110.9 85.6 74.2
Oct. 2011 112.9 86.1 74.5
Nov. 2011 113.8 86.4 74.7
Dec. 2011 113.5 85.3 73.6
Jan. 2012 113.9 86.6 74.8
Feb. 2012 113.9 87.3 75.1
Mar. 2012 114.0 88.4 75.8
Apr. 2012 113.7 88.4 75.5
May. 2012 114.4 88.5 75.5
June. 2012 114.8 88.9 76.0
July. 2012 115.3 88.0 75.1
Aug. 2012 115.7 87.3 74.0
Sep. 2012 116.3 85.0 70.4
Oct. 2012 116.8 85.2 70.4
Nov. 2012 116.8 84.3 69.3
Dec. 2012 116.7 85.3 70.9
Jan. 2013 117.2 83.8 70.1
Feb. 2013 117.7 82.4 69.3
Mar. 2013 118.0 80.7 68.4
Apr. 2013 118.8 81.1 68.9
May. 2013 119.0 82.8 71.1
June. 2013 120.4 84.0 72.4
July. 2013 120.8 85.1 73.6
Aug. 2013 121.1 84.5 72.8
Sep. 2013 120.8 83.9 72.1
Oct. 2013 120.3 81.6 69.4
Nov. 2013 120.1 81.5 69.3
Dec. 2013 120.2 82.0 69.9
Jan. 2014 120.8 83.7 71.5
Feb. 2014 121.4 84.3 71.8
Mar. 2014 121.8 85.3 72.4
Apr. 2014 121.8 85.4 72.3
May. 2014 122.1 84.3 70.2
June. 2014 123.1 84.0 69.5
July. 2014 123.7 83.7 69.0
Aug. 2014 125.2 84.8 70.4
Sep. 2014 124.5 85.3 71.3
Oct. 2014 125.4 86.7 73.0
Nov. 2014 124.7 87.4 74.0
Dec. 2014 125.5 87.6 73.9
Jan. 2015 124.2 86.3 72.6
Feb. 2015 123.4 86.2 72.8
Mar. 2015 123.9 86.4 73.0
Apr. 2015 123.5 85.5 71.7
May. 2015 122.3 85.0 71.4
June. 2015 120.2 85.1 72.2
July. 2015 118.2 86.3 74.3
Aug. 2015 117.9 87.1 75.5
Sep. 2015 117.4 87.4 76.1
Oct. 2015 117.6 87.7 76.4
Nov. 2015 117.2 87.0 75.7
Dec. 2015 115.9 85.7 74.5
Jan. 2016 115.7 85.5 74.1
Feb. 2016 115.2 85.5 74.1
Mar. 2016 116.0 85.9 73.9
Apr. 2016 115.8 86.2 74.4
May. 2016 115.7 86.5 74.8
June. 2016 114.0 85.4 74.0
July. 2016 113.9 85.0 73.7
Aug. 2016 112.2 83.3 71.9
Sep. 2016 112.1 81.5 69.4
Oct. 2016 111.5 82.0 70.3
Nov. 2016 112.2 83.8 72.6
Dec. 2016 112.2 86.1 75.9
Jan. 2017 112.9 86.0 74.8
Feb. 2017 113.6 86.0 73.7
Mar. 2017 114.0 86.9 74.2
Apr. 2017 114.1 87.2 74.5
May. 2017 114.4 87.3 74.4
June. 2017 114.5 87.2 74.0
July. 2017 114.7 87.0 73.6
Aug. 2017 113.3 87.0 74.0
Sep. 2017 113.3 86.9 73.8
Oct. 2017 113.0 86.3 73.1
Nov. 2017 114.3 85.8 72.0
Dec. 2017 114.8 85.3 71.1
Jan. 2018 114.6 86.2 71.4
Feb. 2018 114.5 87.0 71.2
Mar. 2018 114.3 87.8 71.2
Apr. 2018 115.0 87.3 70.3
May. 2018 115.3 86.4 69.4
June. 2018 115.4 86.9 71.0
July. 2018 115.7 87.3 71.7
Aug. 2018 116.1 88.5 73.3
Sep. 2018 116.4 87.7 71.4
Oct. 2018 116.8 88.2 71.2
Nov. 2018 117.2 87.8 70.1
Dec. 2018 118.0 87.7 69.9
Jan. 2019 118.1 86.3 69.0
Feb. 2019 118.0 84.9 68.0
Mar. 2019 117.5 83.4 67.0

On the effect of Easter

It is important to be aware that the uncertainty for the calendar-adjusted and seasonally-adjusted indices for March and April is greater than normal due to the changed placing of Easter. This effect will also affect the seasonally-adjusted figures for the 1st and 2nd quarters. This is accounted for when adjusting for seasonal variations. However, it can still be difficult to adjust for all impacts.

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