Growth in manufacturing output continues

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Norwegian manufacturing output went up 1.3 per cent from November 2018-January 2019 compared to the previous three-month period, according to seasonally adjusted figures. The industry ships, boats and oil platforms contributed in particular to the growth.

The index level for Norwegian manufacturing amounted to 118.3 (2005=100) in the period November 2018-January 2019. This is the highest index level registered since the second quarter of 2015. The corresponding figure for the previous three-month period was 116.8. The long-term trend now shows growth since early 2018 (see figure 1).

Figure 1. Production development in manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted and smoothed seasonally adjusted figures. 2005=100

Smoothed seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted
Jan. 2014 121.0 121.8
Feb. 2014 121.4 121.5
Mar. 2014 121.9 121.9
Apr. 2014 122.5 121.9
May. 2014 123.1 122.5
June. 2014 123.9 125.0
July. 2014 124.6 123.8
Aug. 2014 125.2 126.9
Sep. 2014 125.6 122.9
Oct. 2014 125.5 126.3
Nov. 2014 125.1 124.8
Dec. 2014 124.5 125.4
Jan. 2015 123.7 122.4
Feb. 2015 122.8 122.7
Mar. 2015 121.9 126.5
Apr. 2015 121.0 121.4
May. 2015 120.2 119.0
June. 2015 119.5 120.3
July. 2015 118.8 115.4
Aug. 2015 118.2 117.9
Sep. 2015 117.6 118.9
Oct. 2015 116.9 115.9
Nov. 2015 116.3 116.9
Dec. 2015 115.8 115.3
Jan. 2016 115.5 115.0
Feb. 2016 115.3 115.4
Mar. 2016 115.0 117.5
Apr. 2016 114.7 114.4
May. 2016 114.3 114.9
June. 2016 113.8 112.7
July. 2016 113.2 114.0
Aug. 2016 112.7 109.8
Sep. 2016 112.4 112.5
Oct. 2016 112.4 112.1
Nov. 2016 112.6 112.1
Dec. 2016 113.0 112.8
Jan. 2017 113.4 114.3
Feb. 2017 113.8 114.0
Mar. 2017 114.1 113.5
Apr. 2017 114.4 114.5
May. 2017 114.5 114.7
June. 2017 114.5 114.2
July. 2017 114.5 115.1
Aug. 2017 114.5 110.4
Sep. 2017 114.5 114.2
Oct. 2017 114.5 114.3
Nov. 2017 114.5 114.7
Dec. 2017 114.5 116.0
Jan. 2018 114.5 113.8
Feb. 2018 114.6 114.2
Mar. 2018 114.7 114.5
Apr. 2018 115.0 115.7
May. 2018 115.3 115.1
June. 2018 115.6 115.3
July. 2018 116.0 116.5
Aug. 2018 116.4 116.4
Sep. 2018 116.9 116.1
Oct. 2018 117.4 117.8
Nov. 2018 117.9 117.9
Dec. 2018 118.2 118.6
Jan. 2019 118.4 118.4

Three-month change: strong activity within petroleum-related manufacturing

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, manufacturing output had a solid increase of 1.3 per cent in the period November 2018-January 2019 compared to the previous three-month period. The growth can particularly be related to an increase of more than 10 per cent within the building of ships, boats and oil platforms industry. High activity within building of oil platforms especially contributed to the increase. Additionally, fabricated metal products together with repair and installation of machinery also contributed positively to the overall growth. Petroleum-related manufacturing saw a total increase of as much as 4.8 per cent.

On the other hand, the overall output increase was dampened by a production fall in basic chemicals. The decline is due to shutdowns among some leading producers.

Figure 2. Selected industries in manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted, 3-month percentage change. November 2018-January 2019/August 2018-October 2018

3-month percentage change
Basic chemicals -3.3
Repair, installation of machinery 3.4
Fabricated metal products 4.2
Ships, boats and oil platforms 10.3

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 3. Indicator for petroleum-related industries. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

Petroleum-related manufacturing and support activities Petroleum-related manufacturing Manufacturing ex. petroleum-related industries
Jan. 2009 156.2 96.7
Feb. 2009 157.0 94.9
Mar. 2009 157.5 93.3
Apr. 2009 157.1 92.1
May. 2009 156.6 91.0
June. 2009 154.8 90.3
July. 2009 153.5 90.2
Aug. 2009 152.8 90.7
Sep. 2009 153.5 92.0
Oct. 2009 153.8 92.9
Nov. 2009 153.2 93.8
Dec. 2009 151.7 94.3
Jan. 2010 151.0 94.7
Feb. 2010 150.6 95.3
Mar. 2010 151.4 95.9
Apr. 2010 151.9 96.5
May. 2010 151.6 96.0
June. 2010 152.3 96.7
July. 2010 152.3 98.2
Aug. 2010 152.0 98.6
Sep. 2010 151.4 98.5
Oct. 2010 151.2 97.7
Nov. 2010 152.6 99.0
Dec. 2010 152.7 99.0
Jan. 2011 149.9 153.0 99.0
Feb. 2011 149.5 153.1 98.8
Mar. 2011 147.3 153.3 99.6
Apr. 2011 148.9 151.8 99.6
May. 2011 150.6 152.7 99.4
June. 2011 152.3 151.9 97.8
July. 2011 154.2 153.0 95.7
Aug. 2011 155.9 154.5 94.2
Sep. 2011 159.1 158.7 94.5
Oct. 2011 161.2 163.3 95.6
Nov. 2011 162.8 164.7 96.3
Dec. 2011 164.7 166.6 95.3
Jan. 2012 167.1 167.9 95.3
Feb. 2012 169.5 168.4 95.2
Mar. 2012 167.6 168.0 95.5
Apr. 2012 164.7 166.2 95.6
May. 2012 164.7 167.9 95.9
June. 2012 168.2 169.3 95.9
July. 2012 170.5 172.3 95.6
Aug. 2012 172.8 174.4 95.4
Sep. 2012 173.5 177.0 95.4
Oct. 2012 177.6 179.7 95.0
Nov. 2012 178.1 180.9 94.6
Dec. 2012 179.1 181.6 94.4
Jan. 2013 180.3 183.2 94.5
Feb. 2013 182.5 186.1 94.2
Mar. 2013 186.7 188.2 93.8
Apr. 2013 187.8 191.5 93.4
May. 2013 189.3 193.5 93.0
June. 2013 190.8 197.6 93.4
July. 2013 193.8 198.7 93.9
Aug. 2013 194.1 198.2 94.6
Sep. 2013 193.8 196.9 94.6
Oct. 2013 191.5 195.0 94.6
Nov. 2013 193.0 195.2 94.1
Dec. 2013 194.0 195.2 94.2
Jan. 2014 196.3 196.8 94.3
Feb. 2014 196.8 198.7 94.4
Mar. 2014 196.0 199.7 94.1
Apr. 2014 195.8 199.8 94.2
May. 2014 197.3 200.2 94.5
June. 2014 200.1 203.5 95.2
July. 2014 199.4 207.9 95.0
Aug. 2014 201.7 213.6 95.1
Sep. 2014 201.4 213.6 94.2
Oct. 2014 206.4 214.4 94.4
Nov. 2014 204.5 212.8 94.0
Dec. 2014 203.6 214.9 94.5
Jan. 2015 199.9 212.8 93.7
Feb. 2015 197.1 210.0 93.6
Mar. 2015 195.1 207.2 94.3
Apr. 2015 193.8 204.5 94.6
May. 2015 188.8 201.3 94.2
June. 2015 184.8 196.2 93.9
July. 2015 180.9 192.7 92.7
Aug. 2015 179.6 189.9 93.1
Sep. 2015 178.1 188.2 93.0
Oct. 2015 173.9 185.3 93.9
Nov. 2015 172.0 182.7 94.1
Dec. 2015 168.1 178.3 94.0
Jan. 2016 165.5 176.6 94.2
Feb. 2016 164.9 174.3 94.4
Mar. 2016 164.7 174.1 94.9
Apr. 2016 163.6 172.5 95.0
May. 2016 160.3 171.1 95.3
June. 2016 157.2 168.0 94.8
July. 2016 157.9 167.7 94.9
Aug. 2016 153.6 161.0 94.8
Sep. 2016 152.4 159.4 95.0
Oct. 2016 149.5 156.8 94.9
Nov. 2016 151.3 160.0 95.0
Dec. 2016 151.5 160.8 95.1
Jan. 2017 151.2 158.8 96.7
Feb. 2017 150.0 158.2 97.8
Mar. 2017 145.9 154.0 98.6
Apr. 2017 146.9 155.6 98.3
May. 2017 147.6 156.4 98.2
June. 2017 150.1 159.0 98.3
July. 2017 150.0 157.3 98.9
Aug. 2017 147.3 154.5 97.9
Sep. 2017 147.7 154.8 97.8
Oct. 2017 146.1 155.6 97.2
Nov. 2017 149.5 158.6 98.3
Dec. 2017 150.5 159.2 99.2
Jan. 2018 150.9 158.9 99.2
Feb. 2018 150.8 159.3 98.8
Mar. 2018 150.9 160.7 97.1
Apr. 2018 152.4 162.1 97.4
May. 2018 153.8 162.1 97.6
June. 2018 155.1 161.9 98.5
July. 2018 154.3 162.1 98.7
Aug. 2018 154.6 163.1 98.9
Sep. 2018 154.5 164.7 98.6
Oct. 2018 157.8 166.0 98.9
Nov. 2018 160.2 168.4 99.1
Dec. 2018 162.0 170.6 99.8
Jan. 2019 164.2 173.9 99.5

Monthly change: manufacturing output from December to January unchanged

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, overall manufacturing output was almost unchanged from December 2018 to January 2019, with a marginal decline of 0.2 per cent. However, there were considerable differences between the industries. The industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals together with paper and paper products saw a clear decline. On the opposite side, food products and building of ships, boats and oil platforms had a notable increase.

Clear decline in the Euro area, increase in Norway in December 2018

Estimated figures from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, indicate that output in manufacturing in the Euro area had a clear decrease of 1 per cent from November to December 2018. In the same period, Norwegian manufacturing went up 0.6 per cent.

Two of our neighbouring countries, Sweden and Denmark, both saw a clear production increase in this period.

Figure 4. Index of production for manufacturing. Euro area and Norway (2015=100). Seasonally adjusted

Euro area Norway
Jan. 2014 96.7 102.0
Feb. 2014 97.6 101.8
Mar. 2014 97.0 102.1
Apr. 2014 98.5 102.1
May. 2014 97.4 102.6
June. 2014 96.7 104.7
July. 2014 97.9 103.7
Aug. 2014 95.9 106.3
Sep. 2014 97.0 103.0
Oct. 2014 96.9 105.8
Nov. 2014 96.7 104.5
Dec. 2014 98.1 105.0
Jan. 2015 97.4 102.6
Feb. 2015 99.7 102.7
Mar. 2015 100.7 106.0
Apr. 2015 99.9 101.7
May. 2015 100.2 99.7
June. 2015 100.8 100.8
July. 2015 100.7 96.7
Aug. 2015 99.9 98.8
Sep. 2015 100.1 99.6
Oct. 2015 99.9 97.1
Nov. 2015 100.0 97.9
Dec. 2015 100.7 96.6
Jan. 2016 103.8 96.4
Feb. 2016 101.6 96.7
Mar. 2016 100.5 98.5
Apr. 2016 101.8 95.8
May. 2016 100.4 96.2
June. 2016 101.6 94.4
July. 2016 101.1 95.5
Aug. 2016 101.5 92.0
Sep. 2016 101.5 94.2
Oct. 2016 102.7 93.9
Nov. 2016 103.0 93.9
Dec. 2016 102.5 94.4
Jan. 2017 102.1 95.8
Feb. 2017 103.3 95.5
Mar. 2017 103.8 95.1
Apr. 2017 103.9 95.9
May. 2017 104.4 96.1
June. 2017 103.7 95.7
July. 2017 105.4 96.4
Aug. 2017 106.1 92.5
Sep. 2017 106.0 95.6
Oct. 2017 105.7 95.7
Nov. 2017 108.4 96.1
Dec. 2017 108.2 97.0
Jan. 2018 108.0 95.4
Feb. 2018 105.9 95.7
Mar. 2018 106.3 95.9
Apr. 2018 106.4 96.9
May. 2018 107.8 96.4
June. 2018 107.0 96.5
July. 2018 106.0 97.5
Aug. 2018 107.3 97.5
Sep. 2018 106.9 97.2
Oct. 2018 107.0 98.7
Nov. 2018 105.2 98.8
Dec. 2018 104.2 99.2

Three-month change: clear decrease in total industrial production (PII)

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, the total production index (PII) covering extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply saw a clear decrease of 2.1 per cent from November 2018 to January 2019 compared with the previous three-month period. Extraction of crude petroleum went up 0.6 per cent, while extraction of natural gas saw a notable drop of 8.2 per cent. For more details about oil and gas extraction for January 2019, see the press release from The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Within support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction, there was a strong output increase equivalent to 4.2 per cent compared to the last three- month period. The growth is partly related to an investment increase in the Norwegian oil and gas sector.

Mining and quarrying also saw a production growth of 1.1 per cent in the same period, while output within Norwegian electricity supply went down 4.5 per cent.

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 5. Production development. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

Manufacturing Extraction, mining, manufacturing and elec. Extraction and related services
Jan. 2009 112.1 96.9 91.1
Feb. 2009 110.9 97.3 92.1
Mar. 2009 109.8 96.5 91.3
Apr. 2009 108.9 96.0 90.9
May. 2009 107.6 93.4 87.7
June. 2009 106.7 92.2 86.6
July. 2009 106.1 91.5 86.1
Aug. 2009 106.6 92.2 86.9
Sep. 2009 107.7 93.2 87.6
Oct. 2009 108.5 93.3 87.0
Nov. 2009 109.2 93.4 86.8
Dec. 2009 109.3 92.5 85.4
Jan. 2010 109.4 92.3 85.1
Feb. 2010 109.7 92.0 84.7
Mar. 2010 110.1 91.6 84.4
Apr. 2010 110.8 90.9 83.8
May. 2010 110.3 90.3 83.6
June. 2010 111.1 89.3 82.2
July. 2010 111.8 88.1 80.4
Aug. 2010 112.0 84.9 75.7
Sep. 2010 111.7 83.6 73.7
Oct. 2010 111.4 84.8 75.3
Nov. 2010 112.6 87.4 77.9
Dec. 2010 112.6 89.1 80.0
Jan. 2011 112.7 87.7 78.4
Feb. 2011 112.6 87.0 77.9
Mar. 2011 113.1 85.8 76.5
Apr. 2011 112.9 84.7 74.9
May. 2011 113.0 82.3 71.1
June. 2011 111.7 81.7 70.0
July. 2011 110.2 81.9 69.7
Aug. 2011 109.6 84.3 72.6
Sep. 2011 110.9 85.6 74.2
Oct. 2011 112.9 86.1 74.5
Nov. 2011 113.8 86.4 74.7
Dec. 2011 113.5 85.3 73.6
Jan. 2012 113.9 86.6 74.8
Feb. 2012 113.9 87.3 75.1
Mar. 2012 114.0 88.4 75.8
Apr. 2012 113.7 88.4 75.5
May. 2012 114.4 88.5 75.5
June. 2012 114.8 88.9 76.0
July. 2012 115.3 88.0 75.1
Aug. 2012 115.7 87.3 74.0
Sep. 2012 116.3 85.0 70.4
Oct. 2012 116.8 85.2 70.4
Nov. 2012 116.8 84.3 69.3
Dec. 2012 116.7 85.3 70.9
Jan. 2013 117.2 83.8 70.1
Feb. 2013 117.7 82.4 69.3
Mar. 2013 118.0 80.7 68.4
Apr. 2013 118.8 81.1 68.9
May. 2013 119.0 82.8 71.1
June. 2013 120.4 84.0 72.4
July. 2013 120.8 85.1 73.6
Aug. 2013 121.1 84.5 72.8
Sep. 2013 120.8 83.9 72.1
Oct. 2013 120.3 81.6 69.4
Nov. 2013 120.1 81.5 69.3
Dec. 2013 120.2 82.0 69.9
Jan. 2014 120.8 83.7 71.5
Feb. 2014 121.4 84.3 71.8
Mar. 2014 121.7 85.2 72.3
Apr. 2014 121.8 85.4 72.3
May. 2014 122.1 84.2 70.2
June. 2014 123.1 84.0 69.4
July. 2014 123.8 83.7 68.9
Aug. 2014 125.2 84.8 70.4
Sep. 2014 124.5 85.4 71.5
Oct. 2014 125.4 86.9 73.1
Nov. 2014 124.7 87.5 74.1
Dec. 2014 125.5 87.5 73.8
Jan. 2015 124.2 86.2 72.6
Feb. 2015 123.5 86.1 72.7
Mar. 2015 123.9 86.3 72.9
Apr. 2015 123.5 85.4 71.7
May. 2015 122.3 84.9 71.4
June. 2015 120.2 85.1 72.1
July. 2015 118.2 86.3 74.3
Aug. 2015 117.9 87.1 75.5
Sep. 2015 117.4 87.5 76.2
Oct. 2015 117.6 87.8 76.6
Nov. 2015 117.2 87.1 75.9
Dec. 2015 116.0 85.7 74.5
Jan. 2016 115.7 85.5 74.1
Feb. 2016 115.2 85.5 74.0
Mar. 2016 116.0 85.8 73.8
Apr. 2016 115.8 86.1 74.2
May. 2016 115.6 86.4 74.8
June. 2016 114.0 85.3 74.0
July. 2016 113.9 85.1 73.7
Aug. 2016 112.2 83.4 71.9
Sep. 2016 112.1 81.6 69.5
Oct. 2016 111.5 82.1 70.4
Nov. 2016 112.2 83.9 72.7
Dec. 2016 112.3 86.2 75.9
Jan. 2017 113.1 86.1 74.7
Feb. 2017 113.7 86.0 73.6
Mar. 2017 113.9 86.8 74.0
Apr. 2017 114.0 87.0 74.3
May. 2017 114.2 87.1 74.3
June. 2017 114.5 87.2 74.1
July. 2017 114.7 87.1 73.7
Aug. 2017 113.2 87.0 74.0
Sep. 2017 113.2 87.0 74.0
Oct. 2017 113.0 86.4 73.2
Nov. 2017 114.4 86.0 72.1
Dec. 2017 115.0 85.4 71.1
Jan. 2018 114.8 86.3 71.4
Feb. 2018 114.7 87.0 71.1
Mar. 2018 114.2 87.6 70.9
Apr. 2018 114.8 87.0 70.0
May. 2018 115.1 86.2 69.3
June. 2018 115.4 86.9 71.1
July. 2018 115.6 87.4 71.9
Aug. 2018 116.1 88.6 73.4
Sep. 2018 116.3 87.9 71.6
Oct. 2018 116.8 88.4 71.3
Nov. 2018 117.3 87.9 70.2
Dec. 2018 118.1 87.8 69.8
Jan. 2019 118.3 86.5 69.0

Updated weights in the PII in 2019

The weights in the index of industrial production (PII) are updated by the transition to a new year. The basis for the weights in the index of industrial production (PII) is value added at factor prices from the annual structure statistics for oil and gas, manufacturing, electricity and district heating for 2017. The value added figures are updated to the situation at the end of 2018 with rates of change from the quarterly national accounts, and volume figures from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Within manufacturing, food products and basic metals were the industries that had the largest increase in weights from 2018 to 2019. On the other hand, weights for the industry groupings refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, and computer and electrical equipment had the largest decline from 2018 to 2019. For the total aggregate (PII), the weight for manufacturing decreased, while the weight for extraction and related services increased.

Productivity factors

As of January 2019, updated productivity factors will be included in the calculation of the index of industrial production (PII) covering extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply. The factors are based on annual volume change in GDP per hour worked for the relevant industries and are an average from the last five years. This information is collected from the annual national accounts.

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