Lowest population growth since 2006


The population growth in 2016 is estimated to be 43 400 persons, or 0.83 per cent. This is the second year running with a decrease in the population growth. The figures are the lowest since 2006. There are expected to be 5 257 000 residents in Norway on 31 December 2016.

Table: Estimated population growth and population. The whole country, counties and municipalities.

To table

Net migration makes up 60 per cent of the growth, while 40 per cent is excess of births. The decline in the population growth is caused by lower net migration compared to the peak years 2007-2014, when about 70 per cent of the population growth was net migration. This is due to the increasing emigration of labour workers.

Figure 1

Figure 1. Excess of births, net migration and population growth

Estimated net migration from abroad is expected to be about 25 800, which is 4 000 lower than in 2015 and about 21 000 lower than in the peak year 2012, when net migration was 47 300.

The estimated excess of births of 17 600 is expected to be somewhat lower than last year, but will still constitute a larger part of the population growth than last year, because the net migration is lower today.

Estimated figures for the counties show that Akershus, Sør-Trøndelag and Oslo have the highest growth. The population growth in Akershus is 1.6 per cent, while Sør-Trøndelag and Oslo grew with 1.3 per cent.

Figure 2

Figure 2. Estimated population growth. County. 2016

Asylum seekers without a residence permit are not registered as residents and therefore not included in these estimations.

The estimations show expected population at the end of 2016, and some new boundary changes from 1 January 2017 are not included.