Discussion Papers no. 617

An econometric analysis

Oil dependency of the Russian economy

A macro econometric model of the Russian economy is developed, containing 13 estimated equations – covering major national account variables, government expenditures and revenues, interest rates, prices and the labour market. The model is tailored to analyze effects of changes in the oil price and economic policy variables. The model has good statistical properties and tracks history well over the estimation period, which runs from 1995Q1 to 2008Q1. Model simulations indicate that the Russian economy is vulnerable to large fluctuations in the oil price, but we also find evidence of significant economic growth capabilities in the absence of oil price growth.

Om publikasjonen


Oil dependency of the Russian economy. An econometric analysis


Andreas Benedictow, Ole M. Løfsnæs, Daniel Buikema Fjærtoft

Serie og -nummer

Discussion Papers no. 617


Statistics Norway


Discussion Papers

Antall sider




Om Discussion Papers

Discussion papers comprise research papers intended for international journals and books. A preprint of a Discussion Paper may be longer and more elaborate than a standard journal article as it may include intermediate calculations, background material etc.