Moderate economic upturn in the first half of this year

Published:

GDP for mainland Norway increased seasonally adjusted by 0.7 per cent in the second quarter of 2017 and continued with the same growth as the previous quarter. The recovery came after two and a half years with weak growth.

Figure 1. Gross domestic produkt. Seasonally adjusted. Volume indices. 2014=100
Figure 1. Gross domestic produkt. Seasonally adjusted. Volume indices. 2014=100
Gross domestic product Gross domestic product, Mainland-Norway
Q1-2005 86.74 76.7
Q2-2005 87.2 78.78
Q3-2005 87.92 78.84
Q4-2005 88.12 80.3
Q1-2006 88.69 81.03
Q2-2006 88.8 82.04
Q3-2006 89.71 82.54
Q4-2006 91.35 84.91
Q1-2007 91.42 85.95
Q2-2007 91.42 86.25
Q3-2007 92.59 88.38
Q4-2007 93.6 88.92
Q1-2008 92.46 88.27
Q2-2008 92.5 89.52
Q3-2008 92.33 89.84
Q4-2008 92.62 87.82
Q1-2009 91.87 87.43
Q2-2009 91.07 87.55
Q3-2009 91.12 87.28
Q4-2009 91.17 87.88
Q1-2010 92.97 89.27
Q2-2010 91.98 89.02
Q3-2010 89.7 89.39
Q4-2010 92.21 89.24
Q1-2011 92.25 90.06
Q2-2011 91.87 90.76
Q3-2011 93.35 91.2
Q4-2011 93.4 91.83
Q1-2012 95.39 93.55
Q2-2012 95.62 93.79
Q3-2012 94.23 94.43
Q4-2012 95 95.12
Q1-2013 95.21 95.81
Q2-2013 95.9 95.83
Q3-2013 96.84 96.77
Q4-2013 96.67 97.5
Q1-2014 97.15 97.7
Q2-2014 97.82 98.58
Q3-2014 98.46 98.84
Q4-2014 99.34 99.48
Q1-2015 99.24 99.75
Q2-2015 99.67 99.93
Q3-2015 101.2 100.2
Q4-2015 99.89 100.11
Q1-2016 101.04 100.47
Q2-2016 100.88 100.87
Q3-2016 100.38 100.95
Q4-2016 101.64 101.21
Q1-2017 101.82 101.88
Q2-2017 102.99 102.54

Figure 2. Gross domestic produkt. Seasonally adjusted. Volume indices. 2015=100
Figure 2. Gross domestic produkt. Seasonally adjusted. Volume indices. 2015=100
Gross fixed capital formation, Mainland-Norway Consumption in households
Q1-2005 77.28 73.9
Q2-2005 79.08 74.96
Q3-2005 80.97 76.42
Q4-2005 87.39 75.49
Q1-2006 84.4 77.34
Q2-2006 89.99 78.91
Q3-2006 87.58 79.88
Q4-2006 92.96 80.32
Q1-2007 95.93 82.1
Q2-2007 98.7 83
Q3-2007 100.99 84.17
Q4-2007 109.68 85
Q1-2008 104.41 86.11
Q2-2008 102.12 86.05
Q3-2008 102.28 84.6
Q4-2008 101.24 83.68
Q1-2009 92.45 82.85
Q2-2009 89.53 84.64
Q3-2009 87.96 85.63
Q4-2009 96.32 86.09
Q1-2010 84.03 87.75
Q2-2010 84.74 87.51
Q3-2010 85.62 88.42
Q4-2010 88.48 88.97
Q1-2011 91.46 89.22
Q2-2011 89.17 89.85
Q3-2011 89.48 90.12
Q4-2011 90.8 91.14
Q1-2012 91.8 92.17
Q2-2012 92.43 93.19
Q3-2012 99.49 93.87
Q4-2012 103.48 94.02
Q1-2013 95.36 95.42
Q2-2013 100.39 95.69
Q3-2013 100.14 96.41
Q4-2013 102.25 96.58
Q1-2014 98.79 96.97
Q2-2014 100.85 97.76
Q3-2014 100.42 97.88
Q4 2014 100.43 98.64
Q1-2015 98.37 99.26
Q2-2015 99.34 99.97
Q3-2015 100.89 100.15
Q4-2015 101.4 100.62
Q1-2016 101.3 101.11
Q2-2016 104.08 100.73
Q3-2016 109.47 101.23
Q4-2016 108.53 102
Q1-2017 107.98 102.63
Q2-2017 110.85 103.88

For manufacturing and mining, the preliminary figures from the Quarterly national accounts show an increase in the gross product of 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2017. This is the third quarter in a row with growth after two years of decline. We see this upward tendency in most areas.

The activity level for other goods-producing industries in mainland Norway increased by 0.9 per cent in the second quarter. It was mainly construction and construction activity that pulled up in this quarter, following steady growth since the first quarter of 2016. In addition, power supply activity increased, while traditional fishing and aquaculture fell somewhat.

Business services increased by 0.6 per cent in the second quarter, slightly more than the previous quarter.In the service sector, the picture is that the growth is broadly composed. Value added in public administration increased by 0.4 per cent in the 2nd quarter, after a somewhat higher growth in the previous quarter.

Value added in extraction andtransport via pipelines of oil and gas, as well as foreign shipping increased in the second quarter of 2017 after a decline in the first quarter, contributing to a total of 1.1 per cent growth in total CDP in the first quarter compared with only 0.2 per cent in the quarter before.

 

Stronger consumption growth in households

Household consumption increased by 1.2 per cent in the second quarter, having increased by 0.6 per cent the previous year. Commodity sales increase for the third quarter in a row, showing the strongest growth since the third quarter 2013. There was a broad rise in consumer spending. However, a fall in the purchase of cars of 1.5 percent slowed down the rise in consumption.

Service consumption increased by 0.8 per cent, approximately the same as in the previous quarter

Public consumption increased by 0.4 per cent in the second quarter, after a clear growth in municipalities, but was dampened by a decline in defense consumption.

Stable investments in total

In total, gross capital formation increased by 3.2 per cent. Preliminary calculations show that growth in petroleum investments increased by 1.8 per cent in second quarter 2017, after 0.9 per cent growth in the first quarter. This growth comes after a continuous decline that started in the second half of 2013.

In mainland Norway, investment in industries fell by 0.8 per cent in both the first and second quarters. In manufacturing and mining, investment declined by 12.9 per cent, after a similar decline in the first quarter. In the other mainland industries, investment has increased slightly.

Investments in dwellings have risen sharply for a long time, increasing by 1.8 per cent in the second quarter of 2017.

Public sector investment by 9 per cent, and most of this growth is attributable to the delivery of three new combat aircrafts in the 2nd quarter. Other central government investment has remained at about the same level since the second half of 2016, but municipal investment has been stable for three consecutive quarters.

Increased exports and reduced imports.

Exports of goods and services increased overall by 1 per cent in the second quarter of 2017, following a corresponding decline in the previous quarter. Exports of traditional goods were 3 per cent higher than in the first quarter, while there was a 6 per cent increase from the fourth quarter of 2016 to the first quarter of 2017. The increase is due to an even larger fall through 2016 with a particularly strong fall in the fourth quarter of 7.3 per cent. Exports of refined oil products in the second quarter increased slightly more than the whole increase in traditional exports and contributed significantly to growth in the first quarter. Export volume of oil and gas increased in the second quarter, following a decline in the previous quarter.

Imports of traditional goods fell by 1.8 per cent following a strong growth the previous quarter. Total imports of goods and services decreased by 0.4 per cent in the second quarter.

More pronounced growth in employment

Preliminary calculations show that seasonal employment increased by 0.4 per cent, or about 10 600 people in the second quarter, after more than two years of modest growth. In the second quarter, there were 23 700 more employed than in the same quarter last year. Growth is mainly related to construction, business services and accommodation and catering activities. At the same time, petroleum activities and oil-related services industries have declined somewhat.

Revision of time series back to 2007

In connection with the release of figures for the second quarter of 2017, the base year is updated with new information from the final national accounts 2015. In addition, there have been minor revisions in the time series back to 2007.

In addition, new information has been incorporated for all quarters from the first quarter of 2016. The new figures for 2016 show a growth in the GDP of mainland Norway of 1.0 per cent on an annualized basis, which is 0.1 percentage point more than the previous estimate.

The seasonally adjusted growth in mainland Norway GDP through 2016 is, by the way, slightly changed as a result of the new information. Growth in 1st quarter 2017 has been revised upwards by 0.1 percentage points. An overview of revisions in macroeconomic main sizes is given in Appendix Table No. 8.

In connection with the release for the 1st quarter of 2017, all quarters in 2016 are revised. The new figures show a quarterly growth in GDP for the Mainland.

For an overview of developments in the gross domestic product for some of our trading partners, see OECD’s statistics.

How the figures are calculated

The sum of four quarters in the Quarterly National Accounts (QNA) makes up the preliminary annual figures until the Annual National Accounts (ANA) for year t are published in August in year t+2 and incorporated as a new base year in the QNA. Hence, 2015 is the base year in the QNA when publishing data in August 2017.

In both the ANA and QNA, the figures stripped of movements in prices are referred to as volume changes, or fixed price estimates in the QNA, and this is done to identify the underlying cyclical pattern of the economy.

Note that in the time series in volume, the figures from the base year and onwards are fixed price figures, while data prior to the base year are chained volume figures. This implies that additivity in volume is lost prior to the base year.

Contact