Seasonally adjusted figures for job vacancies

The statistics on job vacancies are based on a quarterly survey of businesses and on jobs reported to the A-ordningen. The survey started in the 1^st quarter of 2010, and the figures for the first year were published at the beginning of 2011. The total number of job vacancies and the overall job vacancy rate are published every quarter, and a breakdown is also given for 20 industry groups.

In order to comment on the development in the total number of job vacancies and in the different industries, we have so far only looked at changes from the corresponding quarter in the previous year. This is because several of the industries have variations due to seasonal effects. The series are now seasonally adjusted, which means that the effects of systematic seasonality are removed. With a seasonally adjusted series as a base, we can look at changes from the previous quarter, and can then also follow the short-term development. In addition to the seasonally adjusted figures, the trend-cycle is also given. This series has had both the seasonality and the irregularities eliminated, and gives the long-term development for the series. The trend-cycle and seasonally adjusted figures are available in table 11587 in Statbank

Seasonal adjustment of the total

The series for the total number of job vacancies has a clearly seasonal pattern (See the green line in Figure 1). We see that, for each of the 7 years, there have been most job vacancies in the 2^nd quarter and fewest in the 4^th quarter. When the effects of seasonality are removed, the 3^rd quarter had the most vacancies in 2016, and the 2^nd quarter had the fewest. In reality, most vacancies were in the 2^nd quarter, but the seasonal adjustment enables us to see that if there were no seasonal variations, the 3^rd quarter that year would have had most vacancies (see the yellow line that shows the seasonally adjusted series).

 

The seasonally adjusted numbers fluctuate around the trend-cycle, the purple line in Figure 1. When considering the whole series, the main picture for the trend-cycle is that it was decreasing from the 3^rd quarter of 2011 until the 1^st quarter of 2016, admittedly with shorter periods of increase. From the 1^st quarter of 2016, we observe an increasing trend-cycle. Looking at the latest figures, there were 58 300 vacancies for the 1st quarter of 2017. The seasonally adjusted figure is 55 400 for this quarter, the highest number since the 2^nd quarter of 2015.

About the method

Industries with clear seasonal variations

When we examine each of the 20 industry groups, we find the clearest example of seasonal variation in education. In Figure 2, we see a clear peak for the 2^nd quarter each year for the non-adjusted series (green line), and clear bottoms for the 3^rd and 4^th quarters. It is natural to find such a seasonal pattern for this industry, because the teaching institutions seek more new teachers ahead of a new school year than in the middle of it. The trend-cycle has been approximately constant from the start, and seems to be in a weak growth phase now.

In addition to education, we also find clear seasonal variations in manufacture, transportation and storage, and in accommodation and food service activities. For this last industry, there are fewest vacancies in the 4^th quarter of each year, while there are most vacancies in the 2^nd or 3^rd quarter. The higher number of vacancies in spring may be due to higher activity in parts of the industry in the summer, while for instance mountain lodges, where the activity is high during the winter months, may announce vacancies in the late summer and early fall.

Industries without systematic seasonal variations

In some industries, we find no systematic seasonal variations. However, this may change over time when new observations are added. The variations for these series are currently more random. There are four industry groups that are not seasonally adjusted. This applies to human health activities, real estate activities, the industry professional, scientific and technical activities, and to arts, entertainment and recreation. For this last group, it could be envisaged that the industry contains a systematic seasonality in relation to, for instance, amusement parks only open in the summer months. However, we find no systematic seasonal effects, as the industry contains a wide range of businesses. The seasonally adjusted figures published for these industries are the same as the non-adjusted figures.