Decline in total investments for 2017

The latest estimates for 2017 show that total investments are expected to amount to NOK 205 billion measured in current value. This is 6.7 per cent lower than the corresponding figure for 2016, given in the 4th quarter of 2016. The decline is mainly due to a marked decrease within oil and gas. The overall decline is, however, partly offset by a substantial investment growth of 21 per cent in electricity supply.

New figures for 2018 suggest that total investments will amount to NOK 203.6 billion; 3.4 per cent higher than the corresponding figure for 2017. The increase is driven by a high investment level within both manufacturing and electricity supply. A more moderate decrease in the oil and gas industry than previously measured also has a positive effect. For more details about investments within the oil and gas industry, please see the following article.

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, quarterly final investments had the following development from the 2nd to 3rd quarter of 2017:

• Oil and gas: -10.7
• Manufacturing : 3.0
• Electricity supply: 37.6

Strong investment growth in electricity supply in 2017, indications of growth also for 2018

New estimates for 2017 show that total investments within electricity supply are expected to amount to NOK 32.7 billion measured in current value; 21 per cent higher than the corresponding figure for 2016. The substantial growth is due to a high investment level in both the distribution and the production sector. The increase in the distribution sector is related to power grid upgrades, as well as installation of new automatic electricity meters (AMR). The new meters are to be installed in the period 2016-2018, while a large part of these investments will be finalised in 2017. For the production sector, the increase is attributed to the development of several new wind farms. Implementation of new depreciation rules combined with the fact that the application deadline for electricity certifications is approaching, may explain this development.

The last estimates within electricity supply indicate a new investment record in 2018. This is expected to amount to NOK 37.7 billion measured in current value; 19 per cent higher than the corresponding figure for 2017. The largest contribution to the growth comes from a high level of investments within production of electricity. The accelerating growth in production of electricity can be linked to the fact that wind power development is expected to further intensify in 2018.

Decrease in manufacturing investments in 2017

Manufacturing investments for 2017 are now estimated at NOK 21.2 billion measured in current value. The estimate is 3.5 per cent lower than the corresponding figure for 2016. The overall investment decline in manufacturing is mainly due to a decrease within the industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceutical products. The decline in the industry grouping is partly related to the fact that some major investment projects, which contributed to growth in 2016, have now been completed. In addition, lower investments in basic metals also contribute negatively. On the other hand, the overall decline in 2017 is somewhat dampened by high investments in rubber, plastic and mineral products, and in food products. Within food products, the investment growth can particularly be related to processing and preserving of fish.

¹The contribution by industry is calculated by multiplying the percentage change of the industry with the industry's share of manufacturing.

Significant growth in export-related manufacturing in 2018

Latest estimates for 2018 indicate a substantial increase in manufacturing investments; 15 per cent higher compared with the corresponding figure for 2017. The expected growth in 2018 is due to a high level of investments in the industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals as well as in food products. The investment level within these two industries is expected to rise by 57 and 17 per cent respectively. As in 2017, the growth in food products is related to a high investment level within processing and preserving of fish. On the other hand, the overall decline in 2018 is somewhat dampened by a lower investment level within wood and wood products and computer and electrical equipment. However, early estimates for next year can be somewhat uncertain and should be interpreted with caution.

¹The contribution by industry is calculated by multiplying the percentage change of the industry with the industry's share of manufacturing.

Fall in mining and quarrying in 2017, strong growth in 2018

Measured in current value, the estimates for investments in mining and quarrying in 2017 are expected to amount to NOK 537 million. This represents a clear decline of 9.7 per cent compared to the year before. The estimates for 2018 suggest a strong rise of 34 per cent.