Population to grow in nearly all counties over the next 10 years

All of Norway's counties except for Hedmark will increase in population over the next 10 years. The strongest growth will expectedly take place in Akershus, Oslo and Rogaland. In these counties the number of inhabitants will grow by nearly one per cent per year. This is double the growth rate of the country as a whole. The population of rural municipalities is expected to decline, while it will increase in urban municipalities.

Predictions are that 230 of Norway's 435 municipalities will see their population decline over the next decade. Typical rural municipalities will as a group see a slight decline of approximately .001 per cent per year, while the larger urban municipalities can expect an increase of .008 per cent per year.

The assumptions underlying the population projections are that the present trends in fertility, mortality and immigration will continue, and that the pattern of migration seen in Norway from 1991 to 1995 will not change. There was considerable migration to urban areas during this period.

Population development towards 2050

The new prognosis indicates continued growth in Norway's population in the coming 20 to 30 years. In the year 2000, Norway will have between 4.42 and 4.49 million inhabitants. In 2010 the population will expectedly be between 4.51 and 4.80 million. Which direction the population will take after 2025 is very uncertain, and we cannot say for sure if stagnation or a decline will occur, or whether Norway will have continued growth. Uncertainty over the population change is so great that our prediction for the population in 2050 ranges between 4.3 and 6.0 million.

New Statistics

Population projection, 1996-2050.
The projection is published every third year in the Weekly Bulletin of Statistics. Preliminary national figures were published in the Weekly Bulletin of Statistics, Issue No. 36/96. More detailed figures for counties and municipalities are included in the Official Statistics of Norway (NOS) Regional Statistics. More information: Kirsten Dybendahl, tel. +47 62 88 52 96, e-mail: kie@ssb.no or Anita Johansson, tel. +47 62 88 54 85, e-mail: bam@ssb.no. Questions about the way the model works and about this report may be directed to Arve Hetland, tel. +47 21 09 44 37, e-mail: ahe@ssb.no or Nico Keilman, +47 21 09 48 70, e-mail: nik@ssb.no.

Weekly Bulletin issue no. 46, 1996