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    Found 8 results for "forecast" on the site

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    • Encompassing tests for evaluating multi-step system forecasts invariant to linear transformations

      Published:

      …. An invariant measure for forecast accuracy is necessary as the conclusions otherwise can depend on how the forecasts are reported (e.g…., as in level or growth rates). Therefore, a measure based on the prediction likelihood of the forecast for all variables at all horizons is used…

      Publication

    • Norway's uncertain demographic future

      Published:

      …; an analysis of historical forecast errors, assembled on the basis of forecasts produced by Statistics Norway since 1969…. As a result, prediction intervals in 2030 for the population younger than 20 years are so wide, that the forecast is not very informative…

      Publication

    • Modelling and forecasting rig rates on the Norwegian Continental Shelf

      Published:

      …) per barrel for the entire forecast period, whereas the reference case features the actual oil price with extrapolated values for the last quarters in the forecast period…. This contributes to dampening the fall in the rig rates and capacity utilization over the last part of the forecast period…

      Publication

    • A Gloomy Economic Future?

      Published:

      …. Economic growth is not expected to be very strong and the unemployment rate, according to Statistics Norway's forecast does not come under 4 percent until after 2018…. A number of factors contribute to end the downturn in SNs forecast. It is mainly due to the sharp depreciation of the Norwegian krone which we already have seen…

      Publication

    • Predicting the exchange rate path

      The importance of using up-to-date observations in the forecasts

      Published:

      …. We find that the date when the exchange rate forecast is based on is crucial and this finding should be taken into account when evaluating exchange rate forecasts…Discussion Papers no. 934 The importance of using up-to-date observations in the forecasts Predicting the exchange rate path Published…

      Publication

    • COVID-19, Economic Cost and the Role of Fiscal Policy

      A report written for the Coronavirus Commission

      Published:

      …. Although public finances were hard hit by the pandemic, it now appears that both tax revenue and spending will be somewhat less impacted through 2021 than forecast by the Norwegian government…

      Publication

    • How are educational groups affected by economic shocks and trends?

      Published:

      …? Published: 21 December 2011 Bjørnstad et al. (2010) forecast the future demand for labor by their educational attainment in Norway until 2030…) forecast the future demand for labor by their educational attainment in Norway until 2030…

      Publication

    • Macroeconomic modelling in developing countries

      An example from Malawi

      Published:

      …. To forecast implications of supply-side policies, aggregate supply and the input factor market need attention…. As Malawi has undergone IMF programs for a long time, one of the design criteria was to make the model useful for forecasts and analysis related to such programs…

      Publication