Analyses of economic cycles

Glosary


Gross domestic product (GDP)

The gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of the sum of value added in a country and comprises market activities as well as general government, voluntary organisations and production for own consumption.

Mainland Norway

Mainland Norway is defined as the Norwegian economy except extraction of crude oil and natural gas (including related services), pipeline transport and ocean transport.

Harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP)

The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) is a standardised price index which is produced in all EEA countries. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) inflation target is linked to the total HICP for the euro area. Because it is based on a common template, it is well suited for comparisons of price developments between countries in the EEA area. The HICP is mainly based on the same data as the CPI, but some goods and services that are difficult to estimate are not included in the HICP. For Norway’s part, the differences between the estimation methods for the two indicators have become smaller in the past few years. Housing costs of free-holders is the only product group that differs between the HICP and the CPI. This product group is still not part of the HICP. The harmonized consumer price index therefore makes up around 88 per cent of the weighting basis for the CPI.

Read more: http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/08/02/10/hkpi_en/

Import-weighted currency basket

A weighting of the exchange rates (measured in NOK) of currencies based on Norway’s current import composition. The value of the imports from individual countries/areas is used as weights. A high figure indicates a weaker NOK, so that a euro exchange rate of NOK 8.50 indicates a weaker krone than a euro exchange rate of NOK 8.00, i.e. we must pay NOK 0.50 more for the euro. If we have to pay 10 per cent more for each unit of all foreign currencies, the import-weighted currency basket will increase by 10 per cent, resulting in a 10 per cent depreciation of the krone. If the krone depreciates against one currency and appreciates against another, the value of the krone may still remain unchanged.

Inflation/deflation

A general rise or fall in the level of prices of goods and services over a period of time. In practice, the rise in the consumer price index (CPI) or the CPI adjusted for tax changes and energy products (CPI-ATE) is used as a measure of inflation.

Consumer price index (CPI)

The consumer price index (CPI) shows the development in prices of goods and services purchased by households. In addition to a total index, figures for main groups such as food and beverages, clothing and footwear, as well as their sub-groups, are published. Among other things, the CPI is used in wage negotiations, where the index indicates the price growth faced by wage earners, and in adjustments of private contracts, for instance tenancy agreements and contracts in trade and industry.

Statistics Norway publishes three indicators, which purpose is to measure the underlying price growth; the consumer price index excluding energy products (CPI-AE), the consumer price index adjusted for tax changes (CPI-AT) and the consumer price index adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). All the indicators are derived from the CPI. Norges Bank places particular emphasis on the development in the CPI-ATE in their assessment of underlying inflation.

Read more: http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/08/02/10/kpi_en/

Kvarts

KVARTS is a macroeconomic model for the Norwegian economy developed by Statistics Norway. By 'model' we mean a simplified representation of the presumably most important mechanisms in the economy. The model consists of 3 000-4 000 equations and even more variables. The equations are based on economic theories and are quantified based on historical data. KVARTS is used to make prognoses and quantify the effect of changing various variables. Variables determined by the model are referred to as “endogenous”. The result of a model estimation is an interaction between the model, observations and estimates of variables that are not determined by the model (exogenous variables). The most important exogenous variables in KVARTS are various policy variables (public sector resource utilisation and tax rates), petroleum investments, the development in demand and prices internationally and petroleum production. In practice, the exchange rate between the krone and the most important currencies as well as the import-weighted currency basket is determined outside the model. However, we have a model in which the exchange rate between the krone and euro is determined in the model (endogenous exchange rate).

National accounts

The national accounts represent an accounting system that provides comprehensive picture of the economy, including both economic structures and economic development. The national accounts describe the nation’s economy as a whole and provide a detailed description of the transfers between the different parts of the economy and between Norway and other countries. Statistics from a range of areas are combined and processed in the national accounts. The Norwegian national accounts are produced in accordance with international guidelines, thus ensuring comparisons between the national accounts in other countries. National accounts are produced both annually and quarterly. The quarterly national accounts are based on the structure of the annual accounts, and are compiled using indicators from Statistics Norway’s short-term statistics.

Read more: http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/09/01/nr_en/ and http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/09/01/knr_en/

Percentage point/per cent

Changes in percentage rates are normally given in percentage points. For instance, an increase in the consumer price index from 2.0 to 2.1 is an increase of 0.1 percentage points. However, measured in per cent the increase is 5 per cent because 0.1 equals 5 per cent of 2.0. A change given in percentage points indicates the absolute change in a figure, while a change given in per cent indicates the relative difference between two figures.

Real income

Real income is adjusted for the increase in prices since a given base year. This enables comparisons of purchasing power between different years.

Real rate of interest

Somewhat simplified we can say that the real rate of interest equals the nominal rate less the increase in prices.

Seasonal adjustment

Several economic variables vary more or less systematically throughout the year. The amount of goods that households purchase in December is much bigger than in the rest of the year, and this pattern repeats itself every year. However, economists are more interested in “the underlying effect". Is the increase from November to December only an effect of Christmas, or is it a general increase in consumption? By use of statistical methods (seasonal adjustment) it is possible to remove the seasonal component, which results in a seasonally adjusted series. If the seasonally adjusted consumption of goods increases from November to December, it is an indication of underlying growth.

Saving ratio

Saving in relation to income is often given in per cent. Somewhat simplified we can say that household saving is the part of the income that does not go to consumption. The household saving ratio is the share of household income that is saved. If you save every ten kroner you earn, the saving ratio is 10 per cent.

Traditional export/import of goods

The part of export and import products which Statistics Norway has defined as traditional. Traditional goods do not comprise services, crude oil, natural gas and other petroleum products mainly produced in the oil and gas industry, ships, oil platforms, planes, helicopters and miscellaneous goods to the oil and gas industry.

Volume indices

An index which shows the volume development in economic variables. In other words, such indices show the development in variables after they have been adjusted for price changes. This is also referred to as the development in fixed prices.

See also: Concepts and definitions in national accounts


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