The 8th Nordic Seminar on Microsimulation Models, Oslo, Norway, June 8-9, 2006

Final Conference Programme

Wednesday 7th June
Thursday 8th June
Friday 9th June

WEDNESDAY 7th JUNE

19.00 - 21.00 Opening reception and registration, Statistics Norway, Kongens gate 6

THURSDAY 8th JUNE

08.45 - 09.30 Coffee and registration

09.30 - 09.45 Opening
Welcome address:
Øystein Olsen, Director General, Statistics Norway

09.45 - 10.45 Invited lecture 1
Guyonne Kalb, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research:
Evaluation of Policy Options to Encourage to Work


Chair: Thor O. Thoresen

10.45 - 11.00 Coffee break

11.00 - 12.40 Redistribution
Chair: Thor O. Thoresen

Clemens Fuest, Andreas Peichl and Thilo Schaefer, University of Cologne: Does Tax Simplification yield more Equity and Efficiency? An empirical analysis for Germany

Bart Capéau, André Decoster, Kris De Swerdt and Kristian Orsini, Centre for Economic Studies - KU Leuven: Distributional Impact of Shifting the Base of Financing Social Security from Personal Contributions to Indirect Taxes

Amadeo Fuenmayor Fernández ,Rafael Granell Pérez and Francisco Higón Tamarit, Universidad de Valencia: The Spanish Income Tax: Micro-simulation of Regional Government Policies

Heikki Viitamäki, Government Institute for Economic Research (VATT): The Flat Tax: A Case Finland

12.40 - 13.30 Lunch

13.30 . 14.30 Invited lecture 2
John Dagsvik, Statistics Norway: Labour Supply Analysis: Practical Modelling and Prediction Performance.

Chair: Ingeborg Foldøy Solli

14.30 - 14.45 Coffee break

14.45 - 16.00 Taxes, benefits and labour supply 1
Chair: Ingeborg Foldøy Solli

Frederik Hansen, Ministry of Finance, Denmark: Making Work Pay Policies: Case Study Denmark

Stéphane Jetté, Ministry of Finance, Canada: Old Age Security Program and Options.

Melanie Arntz, Stefan Boeters, Nicole Gürtzgen and Stefanie Schubert, Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim and CPB, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, Den Haag: Analysing Welfare Reform in a Microsimulation-Age Model: The Value of Disaggregation.

16.00 - 16.15 Coffee break with refreshments

16.15 - 17.30 Taxes, benefits and labour supply 2
Chair: Heikki Viitamäki

Kristian Orsini, KU Leuven: Tax-Benefits Reforms and the Labour Market: Evidence from Belgium and other EU Countries

Anita Haataja, Government Institute for Economic Research (VATT): Parental Live Benefit

Thor O. Thoresen, Jørgen Aasness, Zhiyang Jia, Statistics Norway: The Short-term Ratio of Self-financing: More Realistic Estimates of Revenue Changes from Tax Cuts

19.30 - 23.00 Dinner at Holmenkollen Restaurant, Holmenkollveien 119

FRIDAY 9th JUNE

09.00 - 10.00 Invited lecture 3
Steven Caldwell, Cornell University: Dynamic Microsimulation: Directions for Improvement

Chair: Nils Martin Stølen

10.00 - 10.15 Coffee break

10.15 - 12.00 Dynamic microsimulation, pensions and welfare 1
Chair: Nils Martin Stølen

Rick Morrison, Dynacan Team, Canada: Make it so: Event Alignment in Dynamic Microsimulation

Simon Gault, Department for Work and Pensions, United Kingdom: A Generic Approach to Dynamic Microsimulation Modelling.

Roberto Leumbruni and Matteo Richiardi, LABORatorio R. Revelli centre for Employment Studies, Torino: The Long term Impact of a Decade of pension Reforms in Italy: A Microsimulation Study.

Einar Holm, Urban Lindgren, Erling Häggström Lundevaller and Magnus Strömgren, Umeå University: The SVERIGE Models.

12.00 - 13.00 Lunch

13.00 - 14.15 Dynamic microsimulation, pensions and welfare 2
Chair: Olle Sundberg

Thomas Pettersson, Tomas Pettersson and Anna Westerberg, Ministry of Finance and National Board of Health Insurance, Sweden: Intergenerational Redistribution through Public Sector Measures

Nils Martin Stølen, Statistics Norway: How to Prevent Increased Pension Expenditures in a Defined Benefit System when Life Expectancy Improves

Ingeborg Foldøy Solli and Magne Mogstad, Statistics Norway: Does it Pay to Work in a Welfare State?

14.15 - 14.30 Coffee break

14.30 - 15.45 Health and spatial microsimulation
Chair: Anil Gupta

Silja Jenssen, Informetrica Limited, Ottawa: The Relationship between Self-perceived Health Status and Utilization of Physicians.

Laurie Brown, Sharyn Lymer, Alicia Payne and Ann Harding, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, University of Canberra: Modelling the Use and Costs of Medical and Related Services in Australia.

John E. Cullinan, Stephen Hynes and Cathal O.Donoghue, Rural Economic Research Centre (RERC), Teagasc and Department of economics, National University of Ireland, Galway: The Use of Spatial Microsimulation and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in Benefit Function Transfer . An Application to Modelling the Demand for Recreational Activities in Ireland.


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