International accounts, Q4 2014

The Balance of Payments is being published for the first time with figures for the whole of 2014. The figures have also been revised for 2012 and 2013. The changes apply new figures for reinvested earnings both in the current and the financial accounts, in addition to revised figures in the financial accounts for the two years.

The current account balance for 2014 is reduced compared to 2013, with a decrease in the surplus from NOK 308 billion in 2013 to NOK 267 billion in 2014. The trend between 2012 and 2013 was also negative, and this trend continued through 2014 despite a positive balance of income and current transfers. Interest and dividends receivable from abroad for investments by the Government Pension Fund increased by approximately NOK 30 billion from 2013 to 2014. Similarly, interest and dividends payable to other countries also increased, but not to the same extent, and contributed to an improved income and current transfers balance. Balance of goods and services declined in the same period. Export revenues stagnated in the period, while import costs rose.

With regard to Q1 to Q3 2014, the current account balance has been revised down by about NOK 8.4 billion compared to the previous release. The largest revisions are in Q3. New figures for reinvested earnings for 2014 also contribute to a downward adjustment of the current account.

Q4 had a positive development in the current account in relation to the preceding quarter, but showed a decline compared to the same quarter in the previous year. The positive development from the previous quarter is mainly due to positive developments in the balance of goods and services. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, the development in balance of goods and services is negative.

In Q4, the trend with a lower goods and service balance continued. Oil and eventually failing oil and gas prices are an explanatory factor on the revenue side, while progressively higher imports of both goods and services contribute to increased costs. The balance of services is now fairly stable in a negative direction. This trend is due, in particular, to Norwegians’ expenditure on travel abroad. The "opposite" stream, which is foreigners’ travel expenses in Norway, has seen a much smaller increase, which over time has led to a lower service balance. The last time the balance of services was positive was in Q1 2011.

The financial account’s transactions in assets amounted to NOK 583 billion and NOK 228 billion in liabilities in 2014. In 2013, the transaction assets amounted to NOK 509 billion and NOK 253 billion in transaction liabilities.

Portfolio investments increased in this quarter. Asset transactions amounted to NOK 64 billion and liabilities transactions amounted to NOK 94 billion. The increased transactions on portfolio liabilities were dominated by large debt securities, which amounted to NOK 110 billion.

Other financial investment transactions, on the assets side, were dominated by the loans, which increased to NOK 192 billion, and deposits, which decreased by NOK 85 billion in the 4th quarter of 2014. The liabilities were dominated by an increase in deposits of NOK 71 billion.