New calculation method pushes up emissions

Published:

New calculations for 1990-2015 show larger emissions than earlier estimates. Norway still fulfils its commitments for emissions of nitrogen oxides and sulphur dioxide. Norway has not reached the target emissions of ammonia and Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOCs).

In the updated calculations for the years 1990-2015, new sources for emissions of acidifying gases and ozone precursors are included in the figures. (see fact box about new guidelines). The background for the changes are new guidelines provided by the LRTAP-Convention .1  As a consequence, the emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO) and NMVOCs are higher throughout the time series. In addition, the trend shows a lower reduction in emissions than previously calculated. This applies to all gases to different degrees, including sulphur dioxide (SO2) and ammonia (NH3).

Figure 1

Figure 1. Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOX), sulphur dioxide (SO2), ammonia (NH3) and NMVOCs

 

2020 targets for NMVOCs and ammonia not fulfilled

Since the emission targets defined in the Gothenburg protocol are given as a percentage reduction relative to 2005 levels, the changes in the calculation method mean that Norway is farther from its reduction targets compared to previous calculations. In spite of this, a reduction in NOx and SO2 emissions of 25.5 per cent and 32 per cent respectively keeps Norway above the reduction target, thus fulfilling the commitments. The emissions of NMVOCs have been reduced by 32 per cent (target 40 per cent reduction), while the ammonia emissions (target 8 per cent reduction) are about the same as in 2005. 

Emissions from aluminium production cause jump in CO emissions

The carbon monoxide emissions were about 385 0000 tonnes in 2015; a 1.5 per cent rise compared to 2014, although half as large as the emissions in 1990. In 1990, road traffic was the largest source of CO emissions, with over 400 000 tonnes of emitted CO. Since then, road traffic emissions of carbon monoxide have sunk to one tenth of the 1990 emissions. 

In 2015, emissions from aluminium production is the largest contributor, with an emission of 146 000 tonnes. This source is included for the first time in this year’s figures, due to the new guidelines (see fact box), and gives an added emission of between 100 000 and 170 000 tonnes to the total each year in the time series. 

Small increase in emission of NMVOCs

About 157 000 tonnes of NMVOCs were emitted I 2015, which is about one per cent less than in 2014 and 19 000 tonnes above the 2020 target. Use of solvents and emissions from offshore loading contributed most to the emissions, with a combined share of more than 50 per cent of the total emissions in 2015. 

New emission sources were included for the first time in the calculation this year, which has led to an increase in the total emissions of between 3 to 10 per cent each year in the time series.

NOx emissions continue to fall

Emissions of nitrogen oxides have been heavily reduced for previous years. This is to a large degree caused by the NOx taxation introduced in 2007. In total, 153 000 tonnes of NOx were emitted in 2015, which is 3.7 per cent less than in 2014. The reduction meant that Norway achieved its reduction target for 2020 in 2015. 

Updated emission factors for shipping and road traffic in the most recent calculations have led to the emission reduction being smaller than in the previous calculations. Emissions from pulp and paper, and agriculture have been included for the first time, which contributes to a 3 to 5 per cent increase throughout the time series.

Figure 2

"Figur 2. Emissions of NOX, by source

Slightly lower Sulphur dioxide emissions

The total emission of SO2 was 16 400 tonnes in 2015. This is about one third of the emission level in 1990 and well below the emission target in 2020. The biggest reduction comes from a decrease in process emissions, especially within chemical and metal industry, and less use of crude oil in manufacturing. Manufacturing and mining are still the most important emission sources, with a contribution to the total SO2 emission of nearly 73 per cent. In the later years, the emissions have been stable in all sectors except the shipping sector, where the emissions have been reduced to 110 tonnes in 2015; about a third of the emissions in 2010. The total emissions were one per cent lower in 2015 than in 2014. 

Figure 3

Figure 3. Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOX), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and ammonia (NH3)

Reduced emissions of acidifying gases

The combined emission of the acidifying gases NOx, SO2 and NH3, measured in acid equivalents was reduced in 2015 by two per cent compared to the year before, and 27 per cent compared to the 1990 emissions. The sulphur emission has decreased most from 1990, although since 2007 the NOx emission has been reduced significantly. The emission of ammonia is nearly unchanged since 1990.

Norway is committed to further reduction

In the EU directive 2001/81/EF (NEC), which through the EEA agreement also applies to Norway, the countries are committed to the same obligations as the Gothenburg protocol .

The delimitation of which emissions are to be counted as Norwegian, is slightly different in the Gothenburg Protocol than in Statistics Norway’s emission statistics. The difference relates to aviation, where the emission statistics cover all emissions from domestic aviation, while the Gothenburg Protocol covers landing and take-off only, but includes international flights by both Norwegian and foreign companies. The emissions tend to be slightly lower according to the Gothenburg Protocol than in Statistics Norway’s emission statistics.

New guidelines for emission calculation

Statistics Norway to a great extent follows the guidelines provided by the LRTAP Convention (Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution) in the production of the statistics over emissions of acidifying gases and ozone precursors. In the publication of final figures for 1990-2015 updated guidelines for calculation of the emissions have been taken into use. This means that new emission sources have been included and new emission factors have been used for some sources, These changes have been applied to the entire times series 1990-2015.

Contact