Oil and gas markets towards 2050

The objective of this project is to study the development of oil and gas markets, including how changes in policies may affect these markets.

Project details

Project manager
Knut Einar Rosendahl
Frisch, UiS, Noragric, FNI, University of Maryland
Project term
01.01.2009 - 31.12.2015
Project status
Research field

About the Project

The project has a number of subprojects focusing on different aspects of oil and gas markets. Different methods are used, such as theoretical analysis, numerical simulation models and econometric methods.

• A new dynamic model for the oil market is under development. It will be used to analyze how the market may develop over time, and how changes in policies may affect oil prices, market shares etc.

• The relationship between the oil price and oil rig rates is analyzed in order to understand to what degree oil price changes influences on oil rig rates. A large data set is used, in cooperation with University of Stavanger.

• The European gas market is much influenced by the gas supply from Russia, og by using a new dynamic model it is analyzed how gas reserves in Russia and other countries may affect extraction rates for gas and thus the gas market in Europe. Impacts of a potential gas cartel on international gas markets are also analyzed, using a global gas market model, in cooperation with the University of Maryland and FNI.

• In a separate PhD. project it is analyzed the relationship between extraction of fossil fuels, climate policies, technological change and uncertainty.

• Different types of climate and energy policies may affect the oil market differently, not least because the oil market is characterized by market power (OPEC). By using theoretical and numerical analysis, both price and quantity effects of different policy instruments are examined. This is a cooperation with the Frisch centre.

• The supply of biofuels will inter alia depend on the potential for and the costs of biofuels production. In addition to studying this supply in cooperation with Noragric, the effects on the oil market of introducing biofuels are examined.